NAHB says housing construction is lagging job growth nationwide
NAHB’s latest math showed 1.8 million new jobs chasing just 1.51 million housing permits, a gap that keeps demand tilted toward repairs and small fixes.
The National Association of Home Builders calculates the U.S. economy added about 1.8 million net new jobs in 2024 while housing permits issued in 2023 totaled 1.51 million units, leaving a jobs-to-permits ratio of 1.2. That was below the group’s more typical recent range of 1.25 to 1.5 and showed construction activity has not kept pace with labor-market growth.
Read metro by metro, the ratio can show much larger mismatches between hiring and building than the national average. The group estimates about 1.2 million additional housing units are needed to close the gap and restore metropolitan vacancy rates to historical norms, and the nation still faces a housing deficit of roughly 1.5 million homes after a decade of under-building that began after the Great Recession. Freddie Mac puts the shortage at 3.7 million units as of the third quarter of 2024, while Realtor.com put the supply gap at 4.03 million homes in 2025.
The shortage keeps more households in the homes they already own, shifting spending toward repairs, replacements, maintenance and smaller upgrades instead of move-related projects. The National Association of Home Builders put the national jobs-to-single-family-permits ratio at 1.84, meaning nearly two jobs were created for every single-family permit authorized, a sign that owner-occupied supply remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates, labor shortages, higher construction costs and lot availability. Lumber, basic building materials and fix-it projects stay relevant even when new-home starts do not surge.
Home Depot's strategy remains focused on the core customer, an interconnected experience and winning with the Pro. Fiscal first-quarter 2026 sales were $41.8 billion, up 4.8% from a year earlier. Its fiscal 2025 net sales were $164.7 billion. Chief financial officer Richard McPhail put home turnover at the center of consumer investment, with the market unusually “frozen” for a long time, a dynamic that keeps pressure on stores to serve repair-driven demand rather than waiting for a wave of new supply.
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