NRF says retail sales rose again, Home Depot demand stays cautious

The latest retail data points to a customer who is still active, but far more selective than carefree. The National Retail Federation said sales rose for a seventh straight month in April, with its core retail measure up 0.34 percent from March and 5.73 percent from a year earlier. The monitor also showed total sales excluding autos and gasoline up 0.72 percent month over month and 6.76 percent year over year, while core sales excluding restaurants, auto dealers and gasoline stations rose 0.9 percent from March and 7.11 percent from April 2025.

What makes the numbers especially useful for Home Depot is how they are measured. The Retail Monitor relies on anonymized credit and debit card transaction data compiled by Affinity Solutions, not survey estimates, and it covers nine major sectors, including building and garden supply stores. NRF said many consumers moved purchases forward ahead of tariffs, while Matthew Shay, the group’s president and chief executive, said consumer fundamentals remained intact. In plain terms, households are still spending, but they are doing it with caution and a sharp eye on value.

That matters on the sales floor. In discretionary home-improvement categories, the winning conversation is less about pushing the lowest ticket and more about helping shoppers finish the job without waste, repeat trips or returns. Associates who can size up a project, compare options, point out the accessories that keep a job moving and explain why a slightly higher-priced item saves time can protect the sale and the basket. That is especially true when customers are splitting projects into phases or delaying bigger purchases until they feel better about the economy.

Home Depot’s own numbers show the same tension between resilience and restraint. In fiscal 2025, total sales rose 3.2 percent to $164.7 billion, while comparable sales increased 0.3 percent companywide and 0.5 percent in the United States. The company said elevated interest rates, pressured housing affordability and general economic uncertainty continued to weigh on demand, even as it kept leaning on its core store base, interconnected shopping experience and Pro customers.

The spring merchandising push has been aimed at that exact shopper. Home Depot’s Spring Starts event ran from March 19 through April 1 and focused on both Pro and DIY customers with plants, outdoor power equipment, cleaning supplies, grills and patio furniture. Billy Bastek, the company’s executive vice president of merchandising, said spring is when homeowners and Pros head back outside and start tackling the projects they planned over the winter.

Home Depot will get another read on that cautious demand pattern when it reports first-quarter 2026 results on May 19, just days before its annual meeting on May 21. For store leaders, the key question is not whether customers are showing up. It is whether they are still willing to trade up when the product, the project advice and the value story are all aligned.