UBS sees McDonald’s shares rebounding as value menu boosts sales

UBS is betting that McDonald’s can turn a rough stretch into a rebound, and the logic starts on the line where crew members feel every menu change first. The firm lifted its price target to $365 from $350 and kept a Buy rating, arguing that the stock can recover after an 11% drop over the past three months as the company leans harder on value, menu simplification and marketing to bring customers back.

That call lands just before McDonald’s next earnings report on May 7, before the market opens, when investors will be looking for proof that U.S. sales are reaccelerating. The pressure is easy to see in the numbers already on the board: McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales fell 3.6% in the first quarter of 2025, its worst domestic decline since the pandemic-era slump in 2020. For crews, that kind of traffic dip usually means fewer easy minutes and more scrutiny on every ticket.

A simpler menu could matter because it changes the work itself. Fewer core items usually means less station clutter, shorter training for new hires, fewer custom build combinations to memorize and fewer chances for a drive-thru mistake when the lunch rush hits. In a chain where turnover is already a constant and managers spend a lot of time retraining, a trimmed menu can be a labor tool as much as a sales strategy. It can also relieve some of the pressure that comes when restaurants are trying to run fast with thin staffing.

McDonald’s has already been trying to reset its value image. On April 2, it announced an expanded McValue menu with items priced under $3 and a $4 breakfast meal deal that started April 21. That followed the broader McValue platform launch in the United States on January 7, 2025. In its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, the company said its value leadership was working, with traffic and value-and-affordability scores improving.

Still, a marketing-led rebound will not fix everything on its own. Stronger promotions can bring more cars into the parking lot and more orders to the kitchen, but they do not automatically solve staffing gaps, kitchen bottlenecks or the workload that comes with a busier shift. McDonald’s has said it is working toward 50,000 restaurants by the end of 2027, a growth target that only raises the stakes for keeping operations simple enough for crews to execute. For workers, the real test is whether value brings in more business without turning every rush into a harder shift.