Technomic Top 500 shows slower chain restaurant growth in 2025

A 3% sales gain in 2025 left chain restaurants with more than $450 billion in sales across 240,000-plus locations, but it also marked the fourth straight year Technomic said growth slowed. For restaurant workers, that usually means fewer new openings, tighter labor budgets and slower paths from crew member to shift leader to general manager.

Technomic projected that 2026 sales growth will stay in the low single digits, close to inflation, and senior director of industry research Kevin Schimpf said the Top 500 showed “impressive perseverance” in 2025 despite “ever-intensifying competition.” That kind of resilience at the brand level often shows up on the floor as caution: more pressure on margins, more focus on remodels and unit productivity, and less appetite for aggressive hiring or expansion.

The growth was not evenly spread. Coffee, chicken and beverage-snack chains did most of the heavy lifting, with drive-thru coffee brands such as 7 Brew Drive Thru Coffee, Dutch Bros and Scooter’s Coffee standing out. Casual dining also helped stabilize the picture, as Chili’s Grill & Bar, Texas Roadhouse and Olive Garden turned in sturdier sales than many peers. International brands including Paris Baguette, Tous les Jours, Jollibee, Bb.q Chicken and Kura Sushi also kept climbing in the rankings.

That split matters inside restaurants because the brands still adding units are the ones most likely to keep posting manager openings, training programs and transfer opportunities. The brands losing momentum are the ones that tend to squeeze labor hours, slow backfilling and let underperforming stores linger. Even when payroll does not get cut outright, a slower growth year can mean fewer midweek shifts, fewer chances to move up, and more work being pushed onto the same skeleton crew.

Pizza showed the weaker side of the ledger. Technomic said the category had a challenging year overall, with Domino’s and Jet’s Pizza among the exceptions. In a slower market, that kind of uneven performance can hit workers hard, especially in chains where one store is busy enough to stay staffed while another is quietly underused and vulnerable to schedule cuts or closure.

The broader slowdown was already visible a year earlier. In 2024, Top 500 sales rose just 3% to $437 billion, 55% of chains fell short of the 4% foodservice inflation rate, and almost 40% posted a year-over-year sales decline. Technomic also said 30 chains delivered triple-digit openings that year, led by Starbucks with 589, while the Top 500 footprint expanded to 236,000-plus restaurants. Those numbers explain why this sector still creates jobs, but not always stable ones. When growth cools this much, the real story is not just who is selling more. It is who is still building, and who is starting to stand still.