Walmart shoppers are still spending, but back-to-school budgets are tighter

Deloitte's back-to-school forecast says spending among U.S. households with school-age children is set to fall about 6% this year on an inflation-adjusted basis, with average K-12 spending at $557 per child and the total market at $30.4 billion. The survey also found 57% of parents expect the economy to worsen in the next six months, a sign that families are still shopping but with less room in the budget.

Last year, Deloitte estimated the back-to-school market at $30.9 billion, or about $570 per student, and found 83% of parents said their households were in a similar or worse financial position than a year earlier. The spending mix also shifted: families planned to spend more on clothing and accessories, while cutting back on technology, school supplies and other home and health products. That is the kind of shift Walmart feels in the store, because tighter budgets usually mean more comparison shopping, more pressure on entry-price items and less spontaneous buying unless the value is obvious.

The National Retail Federation has been tracking the same caution at the front end of the season. In July 2025, it said 67% of back-to-school shoppers had already started buying by early July, the highest level since it began measuring early shopping in 2018, and 51% said they were moving sooner because they feared tariffs would push prices up. Its July 2026 update said 78% of shoppers expect higher back-to-school prices this year and about one-third plan purchases around summer sales, while lower-income households remain more likely to compare shop and head to discount stores.

Walmart has leaned into that price pressure with a sharper value message. In July 2025, the company said its 14 most popular school supplies were priced lower than the year before, with some items at 25 cents, and that families could get first-day essentials for under $65. It also said more than half of surveyed customers said a one-click school supply basket would make shopping easier, which is why it now offers pickup or delivery in as fast as one hour. On its current school-supplies pages, Walmart is still advertising items from 25 cents, alongside categories under $1, under $5 and under $10.

For store teams, that puts the pressure on execution. A tighter school budget means more need for clean signage, full shelves, quick pickup and disciplined seasonal merchandising, because a missing item or unclear price can send the sale elsewhere. The margin-pressure playbook is simple: protect traffic, keep baskets small enough to feel affordable, and avoid training shoppers to wait for deeper markdowns.