Coffee Prices Could Crash Like Cocoa, Analysts Warn in 2026

With coffee sitting at nearly $2.93 per pound as of Tuesday's close, traders and analysts are now asking whether the market is staring down the same cliff that swallowed cocoa in 2024, when that commodity plunged 70% after hitting record highs. A Reuters analysis published March 18, 2026, synthesizing views from traders, analysts, and industry bodies, warned that coffee prices could fall sharply this year in a pattern reminiscent of the 2025-26 cocoa collapse.

The numbers being floated are stark. Garner, whose forecast has circulated among market watchers, put it plainly: "I think coffee prices will be at $2 (per pound) by the end of the year," citing elevated costs that have been steadily dampening consumer appetite. Digby Beatson-Hird, who analyzes coffee markets for Avere Commodities, went further, anticipating an even steeper drop to $1.80 per pound this year. That would represent a decline of more than 38% from Tuesday's closing price.

The setup for this potential slide follows a familiar commodity script. Arabica varieties climbed through 2024 and into early 2025 on unfavorable tropical weather that disrupted harvests across producing regions. The commodity reached its highest point ever in February 2025 and remained elevated as President Donald Trump's trade tariffs created additional market distortions. But expectations of a strong production rebound in Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer, have since pushed prices downward. Higher-priced mild arabica varieties from Colombia and Central America have surrendered market position in the process, while less expensive robusta beans have gained ground.

On the demand side, Carlos Mera, Rabobank's chief coffee analyst, offered a sobering data point: coffee consumption stagnated in 2025, marking the first year without growth compared to the historical annual increase of 2.3% recorded before the pandemic. That stagnation, driven by prices that priced out everyday drinkers, is part of what analysts believe could accelerate the downward move.

Mera is not entirely bearish on the bigger picture, though. He anticipates that coffee's recent price decline will eventually benefit consumers and stimulate demand recovery, projecting a 2% consumption increase for 2026 as lower prices filter through to cafes and supermarket shelves.

Not everyone is convinced coffee will fully replicate cocoa's collapse. The demand patterns between the two commodities reveal significant differences, which has led some analysts to question whether coffee will experience the same dramatic price correction. Coffee is a daily ritual with deep inelastic demand in key consuming markets; cocoa's plunge was partly driven by specific industrial-buyer dynamics that do not map cleanly onto the coffee supply chain.

Still, the direction of the forecasts is one-way. Whether coffee lands at $2 or slides all the way to $1.80, the gap between today's price and where analysts see year-end is wide enough to reshape everything from green coffee contracts to what specialty roasters pay for their next crop allocation.