CONAB Releases First Official Estimate for Brazil's 2026/27 Coffee Crop

CONAB released its First Coffee Crop Survey on 5 February 2026, projecting Brazil will produce 66.2 million 60‑kilogram processed bags in the 2026/27 season - a 17.1% increase on 2025/26 and about 3.1 million bags above the previous national record of 63.1 million set in 2020/21. If realized, this would be the largest harvest in Brazil’s official history and a major signal for growers, roasters and exporters worldwide.

The estimate splits into 44.1 million bags of Arabica and 22.1 million bags of Robusta (Conilon). Arabica is forecast to jump 23.3% year-on-year but remains below Brazil’s record Arabica crops of 48.7 million in 2020 and 47.5 million in 2018. Robusta/Conilon is projected to rise 6.4% and would reach an all-time high at 22.1 million bags. CONAB ties the Arabica strength to expanded plantings, the physiological recovery of an “on-year” in the biennial cycle, and balanced weather during key stages.

Agronomic indicators underpinning the outlook show cultivated area under production expanding about 4.1% to nearly 1.9 million hectares and average productivity climbing to 34.2 bags per hectare - a 12.4% yield gain from the prior season. CONAB reports these gains reflect not only short-term weather improvements but sustained structural advances in technology and farming practices, including more precise field data collection and the use of satellite surveys.

Regionally, Minas Gerais remains central to the surge, with CONAB forecasting 32.4 million bags from that state alone, helped by improved rainfall during flowering. São Paulo is estimated at 5.5 million bags and Bahia at 4.6 million. Espírito Santo, Brazil’s top canephora producer, is expected to see combined output rise by around 9% to about 19 million bags on the back of good rains.

Market implications are mixed for stakeholders. CONAB expects coffee prices to remain high even amid the prospect of record Brazilian output and a good harvest in Vietnam, citing growing consumer demand. The USDA projects global coffee consumption at a record 173.9 million bags for the cycle while global ending stocks may fall to 20.1 million bags, signaling persistent tightness in the supply-demand balance even as Brazil ramps up production. Brazil’s coffee export receipts reached US$16.1 billion in 2025, underscoring the sector’s economic weight.

For growers, millers and roasters, the CONAB numbers validate the recovery phase of the Arabica cycle and reward investments in technology and irrigation. For buyers and price-watchers, the headline volume increase will be weighed against strong global demand and tightening stocks. Expect CONAB to publish follow-up crop surveys and monthly updates that will refine regional yields and harvest progress as the season unfolds.