Honduras coffee output set to rebound as rust risks persist

Honduras is heading back toward a 6 million-bag coffee crop, and that matters far beyond Tegucigalpa’s balance sheets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service now pegs production at 5.53 million 60-kilogram bags in 2025/26, up 6.3% from 5.20 million in 2024/25, before climbing to 6.03 million in 2026/27. Exports are also set to rise, to 5.03 million bags in 2025/26 and 5.50 million the following cycle, a sign that more Honduran coffee could be flowing into buying programs just as roasters continue to watch origin risk closely.

The rebound is being driven by more than optimism. Planted coffee area is projected to grow by about 3%, or 10,000 hectares, with the rust-resistant Parainema cultivar helping push expansion. The crop is also benefiting from better plant nutrition, stronger pruning and crop management, a favorable biennial cycle and the maturation of newly planted trees. Honduras’ coffee map remains concentrated in six regions, Copán, Montecillos, Opalaca, Comayagua, El Paraíso and Agalta, where elevations from 1,000 to 1,600 meters support Bourbon, Catuai, Caturra and Typica.

Even with the bigger forecast, the sector is still carrying old scars. Rust levels were still being tracked closely in March 2026, and the country remained under a national yellow alert, a reminder that recovery is not the same as immunity. IHCAFE’s early-warning system for coffee leaf rust uses disease incidence, climate and phenology data to trigger preventive and control actions, a practical sign that the fight is being managed farm by farm rather than assumed away.

That tension is why the numbers matter now for roasters, traders and origin buyers planning the next cycle. Honduras exported coffee worth more than $1.5 billion in 2023, shipped to more than 65 destinations and counted coffee for nearly 12% of its merchandise exports. The World Bank says coffee makes up 52% of Honduras’s agrifood exports, and about half of the country’s coffee goes to the European Union, which is why IHCAFE is also helping growers meet EU Deforestation Regulation requirements. The country’s sector has already been buffeted by low international prices, leaf rust, drought, COVID-19, Hurricanes Eta and Iota, and even the rural competitiveness project’s 120 business plans and nearly 24% sales lift for beneficiaries like CAFEPSA only underline how hard-won this recovery has been. A bigger Honduran crop would ease some supply pressure, but the real story is whether the gain can hold through rust, compliance costs and another round of price volatility.