Improved Brazil Outlook Pushes Arabica and Robusta Futures to Multi-Month Lows

A string of bullish Brazil crop updates sent Arabica and Robusta futures to multi‑month lows, with market reports between Feb. 17 and Feb. 20 pointing to an improving supply outlook that erased a weather premium from nearby contracts. Arabica traded around $3.00 to $3.20 per pound in the week and the most active March contract finished at 360.3 US cents per pound after falling 8.45 cents Monday‑to‑Monday, Sucafina reported.

Conab’s Feb. 5 projection led the revisions, saying Brazil’s 2026 coffee production will climb 17.2% year‑over‑year to a record 66.2 million bags, with Arabica up 23.2% to 44.1 million bags and Robusta up 6.3% to 22.1 million bags. Other February estimates pushed totals higher: StoneX released a preliminary estimate of 70.7 million bags for Brazil, and Eisa told market roundups the new crop could reach 75.8 million 60‑kg bags. Sucafina’s crop tour raised its outlook as well, noting “Overall, we see production at 49.7m bags Arabica and 25.9m [...] on the forecast horizon in Brazil.” Those figures contrast with an earlier USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecast dated Dec. 18, 2025 that had Brazil at 63 million bags for 2025/26.

Price action reflected the divergent supply signals. Tradingeconomics and Reuters noted “Arabica coffee futures traded around $3 per pound, near the lowest in six months” and elsewhere “around $3.20 per pound, the lowest since August 2025.” Sucafina also said “Last week, coffee futures continued their descent, falling 16.05 cents on the week to finish at 289.6 basis the most active September contract.” Barchart’s Feb. 11 session showed March arabica (KCH26) closed up +0.60 (+0.20%) and March ICE robusta (RMH26) closed up +16 (+0.43%) as a rally in the Brazilian real to a 1.5‑week high sparked short covering.

Weather and crop conditions added fuel to bearish positioning. Somar Meteorologia data for the week ended Feb. 6 showed Minas Gerais received 72.6 mm of rain, or 113% of the historical average, and Cepea researchers said heavier rains in recent days have “brought relief to Arabica producers, favoring the filling of the beans.” Sucafina tied that to market structure: “Elimination of weather premium out of July contracts, an undersold Brazilian farmer, and the peak of Colombia’s mitaca commercialization have now combined with technical charts crossing longer‑term momentum signals to the downside.”

Robusta faced separate pressure as Vietnam exports surged. Vietnam’s Jan coffee exports rose 38.3% year‑over‑year to 198,000 metric tons, 2025 exports totaled 1.58 million metric tons, and 2025/26 production is projected at 1.76 MMT or 29.4 million bags. Market roundups flagged that “soaring coffee exports from Vietnam… are bearish for robusta prices.”

Technicals and positioning remain key near term. Sucafina warned “The market now faces two major technical support points at the 100d and 200d moving averages that, if broken, will initiate additional selling from momentum traders.” StoneX framed the structural shift, saying “Brazil coffee output is projected to reach record levels, marking a decisive break from the supply shortfalls that supported historically high prices,” but added “Yes. While crop conditions have improved, favorable weather must continue for record production forecasts to fully materialize.” Traders will be watching harvest progress, Vietnam export flows, and whether those moving averages hold.