Cuba's Informal Market Shows Euro, MLC Decline as Dollar Holds Steady

Cuba's informal currency market delivered a split result in early March, with the euro climbing three pesos and the MLC dropping seven while the U.S. dollar held firm at what elTOQUE's daily report characterized as a historic high sustained for more than a week.

By 8:01 a.m. on March 12, elTOQUE's figures, as reported by En Cibercuba, showed the dollar at 510 CUP, the euro at 578 CUP, and the MLC at 393 CUP. The euro's three-peso gain came after a turbulent stretch: independent monitoring had flagged a sharp overnight decline for both the euro and the MLC as of early March 9. The MLC continued that downward trajectory, sliding from 400 CUP to 393 CUP, a loss of seven pesos. "The informal currency market in Cuba wakes up this Thursday with two changes: The price of the euro rises while the price of the Convertible Currency (MLC) falls, amidst a context marked by increasing social tension due to the severe energy crisis the country is experiencing," En Cibercuba's editorial team wrote in its March 12 report.

The dollar's stillness at 510 CUP was itself notable. En Cibercuba described the level as a historic maximum reached over either eight or nine consecutive days, with the publication citing both figures in the same article without reconciling the discrepancy. Either count represents an extended period at a peak that would have been unthinkable in earlier years of the peso's decline.

The divergence between the euro and MLC comes against the backdrop of Cuba's ongoing energy crisis, which En Cibercuba linked directly to rising social tension on the island. The Central Bank of Cuba's floating rate has also moved upward in recent weeks, though the informal market continues to set the effective benchmark for most Cubans navigating currency exchanges. "The rates published by elTOQUE have become one of the main indicators for measuring the real value of the Cuban peso against foreign currencies, in a context where the official exchange rate remains far removed from the reality of the market," En Cibercuba noted.

The broader picture, as En Cibercuba framed it, is a market holding its breath: "The market seems to remain on pause, observing both the evolution of the internal crisis and international signals, before establishing a new trend in the value of currencies against the Cuban peso." Whether the euro sustains its gains or the MLC finds a floor will depend heavily on how Cuba's energy situation develops in the weeks ahead.