Pop Mart warns Labubu growth is slowing overseas, shares fall 2.9%

The collector question was simple: would Pop Mart’s cost pressure show up where it hurts most, in Labubu prices, restocks, or overseas availability? The first-quarter numbers said the brand was still running hot, with revenue up 75% to 80% year on year, but the overseas side cooled sharply, and the market noticed. Pop Mart shares fell 2.9% to HK$158.10, putting the stock on track for its biggest one-day percentage drop since April 17.

The split was clear. Pop Mart said its China business grew 100% to 105%, while overseas growth slowed to about 50% after running at more than 290% in 2025. China online revenue was still surging, up 150% to 155%, but Europe, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific all grew at slower rates than the domestic market. For collectors, that means the easiest stock still sits closest to home for Pop Mart. Overseas drops look less like a flood now and more like a managed trickle.

The cost side is where the pressure starts to matter. Morningstar said Pop Mart expects gross margin to fall by about 50 basis points in 2026 because raw material costs are rising 3% to 5%. Reuters-linked reporting also said fuel-price shocks tied to Iran-related energy markets were weighing on international gross profit. That is not the same thing as a straight price hike on every Labubu box, but it does make one thing more likely: tighter allocation discipline. If costs keep climbing, Pop Mart has a stronger incentive to protect margin by shipping less product overseas, staging releases more carefully, and putting more stock where demand is strongest.

The bigger business picture explains why. Pop Mart reported 2025 revenue of 37.1 billion yuan, up 184.7% from a year earlier, and Labubu-related sales reached 14.16 billion yuan, about 38% of total revenue. That level of dependence is exactly why investors have been on edge about whether the character can keep expanding beyond the peak-hype phase. The company is also pushing Labubu into bigger brand territory, including a FIFA World Cup 2026 collaboration with activations planned across the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

So the answer for 2026 is not that Labubu is losing steam. It is that the growth story is getting more complicated. China is still carrying the load, overseas momentum is cooling, and the pressure is shifting from pure hype to the practical question collectors care about most: how much stock actually makes it to the shelf.