UMBC poll: Baltimore City residents see more neighborhood crime progress

Baltimore City residents were more likely than Baltimore County residents to say crime was improving in their own neighborhoods, even as many city voters still described Baltimore as headed the wrong way.

In UMBC Poll #8, 27% of city adults said there was less crime in their neighborhood than a year ago, nearly double the 15% in Baltimore County. At the same time, 42% of city residents said they still felt unsafe walking around their neighborhood after dark, compared with 29% in the county. The poll surveyed 666 Baltimore City adults and 602 Baltimore County adults from April 14 to April 16, with margins of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points and 4.0 percentage points.

The split shows a familiar Baltimore tension: people can notice progress on the block while remaining unconvinced that the city’s broader trajectory has changed. In the city sample, 41% said things were heading in the right direction, while 45% said the opposite. That narrow balance suggests the public mood is still fragile, even as neighborhood-level safety perceptions improve.

The crime numbers give that skepticism important context. Baltimore Police Department figures showed 2025 homicides fell 31% to 133 from 194 in 2024, while non-fatal shootings fell 24% to 311 from 412. City officials described 2025 as a record-low year for violent crime, and Mayor Brandon M. Scott said Baltimore had cut homicide totals by nearly 60% compared with five years earlier. Those gains are substantial, but the poll suggests they have not yet fully translated into confidence on the street.

Other answers point to why. Energy bills ranked as the top issue in both Baltimore City and Baltimore County. In the city, crime, poverty and housing costs were major concerns, while fewer than a third of residents said they were satisfied with public schools. Trust also remained thin: 62% of city residents and 63% of county residents said they never trust local leaders, or only some of the time.

The poll also suggests that residents are judging city progress through everyday conditions, not just crime stats. When asked what would improve the Inner Harbor, 23% of Baltimore City respondents pointed to public safety, 21% said they did not know, and 16% cited more business development, retail and dining. City residents also showed more confidence than county residents that the Francis Scott Key Bridge would be rebuilt by 2030.

Taken together, the results suggest Baltimore City is making real headway on neighborhood safety, but the wider reputation of the city is still lagging behind the numbers. The improvement is visible enough for many residents to notice; it is not yet broad enough to erase doubt.