Kīlauea summit eruption pauses, next lava-fountain episode forecast for next week

Kīlauea’s summit eruption has paused for now, but the next lava-fountain episode is already in view, with the U.S. Geological Survey forecasting episode 45 sometime between April 20 and April 25. The pause has not brought the summit to a standstill: scientists have continued to see glow and flames at the south vent in Halemaʻumaʻu, which they say are caused by ignited volcanic gases, while low-level seismic tremor and intermittent gas-pistoning bursts continue beneath the crater.

The last burst on April 9 showed how quickly the hazard footprint can change. Episode 44 began at 11:10 a.m. HST and ended at 7:41 p.m. HST after 8 hours and 31 minutes. The north vent produced the lava fountains, while the south vent mainly showed periodic gas jetting and flames. USGS said the highest instantaneous effusion rate reached just over 500 cubic yards, or 390 cubic meters, per second around 12:30 p.m.

Winds carried tephra north and northeast across Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, Highway 11 and nearby communities, a pattern that matters for anyone watching park access, air quality and travel on the summit corridor over the next week. The Uēkahuna tiltmeter recorded 17.6 microradians of deflation during the episode, then about 11.4 microradians of inflation after it ended, a sign the summit system is rebuilding pressure. If episode 45 arrives as forecast, officials could again be forced to balance visitor access against sudden tephra fallout and gas exposure.

The eruption is occurring inside a closed area of Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park, and the National Park Service has warned that eruption and weather conditions can change at any time. County officials also closed Highway 11 near the park during episode 44 hazards to reduce injury and property-damage risk. That combination of park restrictions and road closures can ripple quickly through Volcano, visitor bookings and the businesses that depend on steady traffic along the summit route.

USGS has placed the current eruption in a longer volcanic pattern, comparing it with lava-fountaining episodes at Kīlauea Iki in 1959, Maunaulu in 1969 and the start of Puʻuʻōʻō in 1983. The agency also notes that similar eruptions have occurred in Kīlauea caldera within the past 500 years. For Hawaiʻi Island, the lesson is clear: the summit is paused, but it remains active, volatile and capable of shifting back into a fountain phase with little warning.