Supreme Court Case Threatens Oregon's Mail Ballot Grace Period Rules

Republican National Committee attorney Paul Clement told Supreme Court justices March 23 that any race whose outcome "turns on late-arriving ballots" will produce results "the losers are not going to accept," an argument the Court's conservative majority appeared ready to embrace and one that could erase the postmark rule at the heart of Oregon's vote-by-mail system.

The case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, originated in Mississippi, where state and national Republican organizations challenged a law allowing ballots postmarked by Election Day to arrive up to five business days later and still be counted. But the lawsuit's reach extends far beyond Mississippi. Oregon is one of 14 states plus Washington, D.C. that extend such grace periods, and state law enacted in 2022 allows Oregon elections offices to accept any ballot postmarked by 8 p.m. on Election Day, regardless of when it physically arrives. Lane County elections administrators operate under that standard today.

The Oregon Secretary of State's Office reported that 32,000 ballots in 2022 and 13,000 in 2024 arrived at Oregon elections offices after Election Day and were counted because they carried a timely postmark. A ruling against grace periods would revert Oregon to its pre-2022 requirement: ballots physically received by 8 p.m. on Election Day, nothing more. That cutoff would fall hardest on voters served by slower rural postal routes across Lane County's outlying communities, students relying on university mail systems and older voters who mail ballots rather than drive to drop boxes.

The Supreme Court took up Watson after the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled in October 2024 that federal law already bars states from counting post-Election Day arrivals. Mississippi Solicitor General Scott Stewart, defending his state's grace period, acknowledged the challenge's historical novelty to the justices: "No one challenged it until now."

Oregon elections officials have begun adjusting their guidance in anticipation of a ruling. The state now advises voters to mail ballots at least seven days before Election Day, citing Postal Service inconsistencies that have complicated postmark timing even for ballots sent days in advance. Officials have said they will monitor delivery times and update voter guidance as the case moves toward a decision expected before November.

With Oregon's May primary weeks away, the arithmetic for Lane County voters is unforgiving under either the current rule or a stricter one: drop boxes, emptied by elections staff on Election Day, provide the only certainty. Nationally, at least 725,000 ballots postmarked by Election Day 2024 arrived after polls closed and were counted. If the Supreme Court sides with the RNC, every equivalent ballot in future elections disappears from the count.