China exports miss forecasts as imports surge on Iran war shock

China’s trade picture turned sharply more complicated in March. Exports rose just 2.5% from a year earlier, far short of the 8.6% forecast in a Reuters poll, while imports surged 27.8%, the fastest pace since November 2021.

The split matters because March is the first clean read after the Lunar New Year distortions that usually blur January and February data. After a combined 21.8% export jump in the first two months of 2026, March marked a six-month low in export growth and a clear reset in momentum. Imports, by contrast, accelerated from 19.8% combined growth in January and February, suggesting stronger buying of commodities, energy and industrial inputs even as external demand softened.

The result was a much smaller trade cushion. China’s monthly surplus narrowed to about $51.13 billion in March from $213.62 billion in February and $101.93 billion a year earlier. The numbers underline how quickly the trade balance can swing when export demand cools and import volumes rise at the same time.

Officials tied part of the shift to the Iran war and its spillover into energy markets and shipping. China customs vice minister Wang Jun said global oil prices had experienced “fierce fluctuation” and described the trade environment as “complex and severe.” Coverage linked the weaker export performance to softer global demand and the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East conflict, including disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and higher freight and energy costs.

That combination has consequences well beyond Beijing. Reuters-linked analysis noted that net exports accounted for about a third of China’s economy last year, so even a modest export slowdown can weigh on growth. For U.S. companies, the March data point to a mixed signal: weaker Chinese demand for exports into the United States, but stronger Chinese import buying that could support commodity producers, energy suppliers and industrial exporters elsewhere.

The March figures did not erase the broader strength in the first quarter. China’s foreign trade grew 15% year on year to 11.84 trillion yuan, with exports up 11.9% and imports up 19.6%, according to official data released April 14. Still, the monthly reversal shows that China’s external balance is now being pulled in opposite directions, with slowing exports and surging imports complicating any simple reading of a weakening economy.