China Imposes Steep Provisional Duties on EU Dairy Imports

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on December 22, 2025 that it will impose provisional countervailing duty deposits on a selective basket of dairy products imported from the European Union. The ministry said the provisional duty deposits range from 21.9 percent to 42.7 percent and will be collected from December 23, 2025. Authorities framed the action as a response to preliminary findings from an investigation launched in August 2024 into subsidies provided by the European Union and its member states to dairy producers.

The measures list a limited set of products. Targeted categories include fresh and processed cheeses, with reporting naming well known French cheeses such as Roquefort and Camembert, blue cheese and curd, and unsweetened milk and cream with fat content exceeding 10 percent by weight. The investigation does not include infant formula among the products under scrutiny. China said its preliminary determination found that subsidies under the EU Common Agricultural Policy and national supports in countries including Italy, Ireland and Finland had caused injury to China’s domestic dairy industry and therefore warranted provisional countervailing duties.

Company specific rates were reported alongside the product list. Most exporters face rates clustered just under 30 percent, with about 60 companies placed in a band around 28.6 percent to 29.7 percent. Italy’s Sterilgarda Alimenti is cited as facing the lowest listed provisional rate of 21.9 percent while FrieslandCampina is cited as facing the highest reported rate of 42.7 percent. Major dairy groups including Arla Foods, owner of brands such as Lurpak and Castello, are among the firms recorded in the near 30 percent category. Authorities stressed the deposits are provisional and could be revised in a final determination later in the process.

The European Commission criticized the probe and signaled it will contest the preliminary findings. Commission spokesperson Olof Gill said, "the investigation is based on questionable allegations and insufficient evidence, and that the measures are therefore unjustified and unwarranted." The Commission intends to submit formal comments to Chinese authorities as the probe moves toward a scheduled conclusion on February 21.

Market participants and trade analysts said the provisional duties will raise the landed cost of the affected EU products in China and could push importers and specialty retailers to pass higher prices on to consumers or switch sourcing to other suppliers. The measures also add to a pattern of recent trade disputes between China and the European Union involving agricultural and industrial goods, and come amid broader tensions tied to previous EU measures such as tariffs on electric vehicles.

For exporters the immediate prospect is disruption to established supply chains and revenue uncertainty through the winter tasting and gift season for premium cheeses. For policymakers the case will test the rules and politics of subsidy related enforcement between two major trading partners, with a final ruling expected to determine whether provisional duty levels remain, are adjusted or are dropped when the investigation concludes.