Costa Ricans vote as continuity candidate nears 40% threshold amid uncertainty

Millions of Costa Ricans are casting ballots in a presidential election that could either extend the ruling movement’s control or open a brittle, uncertain path to a runoff. The first-round vote on February 1 will decide the president, two vice presidents and all 57 seats in the National Assembly; if no candidate wins at least 40 percent of valid votes, the top two will advance to a runoff scheduled for April 5, 2026.

Polling and market signals have placed Laura Fernández, identified with the PPSO and described by observers as the centre-right continuity candidate aligned with outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves, in a clear front-running position. Polls suggest she is polling close to the 40 percent threshold needed to win outright, and market betting markets have strongly favoured her. One feed cited a Polymarket assessment that “Fernandez appears as a 80%-85% favorite to win in Polymarket. The only reason she isn't higher is that the polling in Costa Rica is scant and of low quality.”

But the race contains familiar sources of volatility. The University of Costa Rica’s CIEP poll released in late January found widespread apathy toward the campaigns: “Nearly 79 percent of respondents said they felt little or no enthusiasm about the campaigns,” while “more than 57 percent answered they felt motivated to vote. Only 19.5 percent said they had no desire to participate in the election.” Americas Quarterly’s aggregation of those findings reported that 32 percent of voters remained undecided, and 69 percent of those undecided said they expected to decide in election week. That combination of low enthusiasm and a large, late-deciding bloc increases the chance of late swings, a dynamic underscored by the 2022 campaign, when polls showed Chaves with roughly 7 percent support before his surge to victory.

The opposition appears highly fragmented, spread across 19 parties, a fragmentation that analysts warn could permit the ruling coalition to capture both the presidency and a legislative majority. Americas Quarterly noted that “75% of citizens no longer identify with any political party,” a signal of voter fluidity that favors last-minute movements and unconventional outcomes.

Beyond political control, the election carries significant economic and financial stakes. A legal and banking analysis observed that “The 2026 presidential elections will directly shape the development of the Costa Rican economy over the next four years; however, the transformations, reforms, adjustments, and continuities will influence the country’s future for decades.” The same analysis laid out structural details of the banking sector, that the system comprises fifteen entities, including two state-owned commercial banks, two special-law banks, and eleven private banks, and highlighted credit mechanisms such as FONADE’s Guarantee and Surety Fund, which can cover up to 75 percent per beneficiary with a cap of CRC 65 million.

That review also criticized Fernández’s plan on development banking, saying: “Laura Fernández’s government plan makes only a brief reference to the SBD, characterized by a high level of generality and the absence of concrete normative or institutional definitions.” It quoted Fernández’s own plan language: “Improve conditions, access, and support for resources from the Development Banking System to finance sector modernization and the application of technologies that enable a more competitive industry, ensuring that the resources provided translate into production improvements.”

Investors and policymakers will be watching turnout and regional vote flows closely. If Fernández secures a first-round victory and legislative strength, markets may read that as continuity in economic management; if undecided voters swing away from the ruling coalition, a runoff on April 5 would prolong uncertainty and heighten scrutiny over fiscal, monetary and banking leadership.