Diamond Prices Fall to Century Lows as Lab-Grown Supply Surges

Diamond prices have plunged to their lowest levels this century as a flood of lab-grown production from China and India has collapsed synthetic prices and weakened demand for diamond jewellery worldwide. Industry analyst Edahn Golan calculates that the average wholesale price of one-carat and two-carat lab-grown diamonds has fallen by as much as 96% since 2018, a shock that has rippled through retail, mining and trade channels.

The scale of the reset is stark: Markets Chronicle traces a one-carat lab-grown wholesale price from about $4,200 in 2018 to as low as $168 by 2025, and reports that in the 12 months to November 2024 loose lab-grown prices fell 20%. By 2025 lab-grown stones were roughly 83% less expensive than comparable natural diamonds, and online lab-grown prices were down about 23% year-on-year, according to aggregated industry data compiled by Accio.

The rapid shift has already altered buyer behaviour. CaratX, citing Edahn Golan Diamond Industry Research, reports that lab-grown diamonds now make up approximately 52% of centre stones in U.S. engagement rings and about 42% of all diamond jewellery sold. CaratX further frames the disruption in retail terms: a 1-carat natural diamond averages around $4,200 while a lab-grown retail counterpart sells for $1,000 or less, a gap that has driven size-for-price purchasing among younger buyers.

Those trends have prompted public alarm inside the trade. Feriel Zerouki, president of the World Diamond Council and vice president of Trading and Industry at De Beers, said in Luanda, "If you look at the latest trends, lab-grown diamond prices are crashing. This is impacting consumer confidence in lab-growns." Zerouki added, "I believe that the lab-grown bubble has burst. And actually, there is a movement in the trade, even at retail level, to come back to natural diamonds." She argued that a rebound in natural-diamond demand "would not happen by itself, but requires initiatives such as the Luanda Accord," a proposed marketing fund to be financed by producer countries.

The Luanda Accord already names participating producers and a finance commitment: Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia and South Africa have pledged to allocate 1% of their annual diamond sales revenue to collective marketing of natural stones. The move accompanies business-level reactions: miners have pulled back output as natural-diamond prices slid about 30% from their 2022 peak, with a 5.7% drop recorded in the first half of 2024, and De Beers reportedly cut rough diamond prices in January as it adjusts allocation to sightholders who buy pre-sorted boxes by size and quality.

Analysts warn the pain may not be over. Markets Chronicle cites unnamed industry experts forecasting further falls of 50% to 80% in some synthetic segments and predicts consolidation among lab-grown producers. Retail strategy advisories from CaratX and Accio urge jewellers to rebalance inventory, differentiate messaging between rarity-driven natural diamonds and value-driven lab-growns, and source natural stones strategically to withstand ongoing volatility.

The result is a market in the midst of structural reordering: deep price resets, a coordinated marketing push for natural supply funded by five producing nations, and an industry recalibration that will determine whether lab-grown gems remain a mainstream bridal choice or are repositioned as price-driven fashion items.