Gas Prices Hit $4.10, Raising New Questions About Car Costs

The national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached $4.10 on Friday, according to AAA data, crossing the $4 threshold for the first time since 2022 and landing its sharpest blow not just at gas stations but across the entire cost of owning a car. At the 2026 New York International Auto Show, running through April 12 at the Javits Convention Center in Manhattan, that number was impossible to ignore.

The fuel spike traces directly to the conflict involving Iran. After the U.S. and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran on February 28, Iran moved to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering what the International Energy Agency has described as one of the largest oil supply disruptions in the history of the global market. Brent crude surged 10 to 13 percent to roughly $80 to $82 per barrel by early March. Since that moment, pump prices have climbed more than 30 percent nationally. Premium fuel now averages $4.90 per gallon, and diesel has risen to $5.45.

EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin warned that the agency foresees "potential for a disruption to the American fuel supply," while Vice President JD Vance acknowledged a "rough road" ahead on prices but argued the spike would prove temporary once the conflict subsides.

The Energy Information Administration projected that crude prices could push retail gasoline roughly 70 cents per gallon higher through the second quarter of 2026. Yale Climate Connections researchers have estimated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted through June, prices at the pump could reach $7 per gallon in some regions. California, where regulatory requirements and limited pipeline infrastructure already inflate costs, recorded an average of $5.87 per gallon on March 31.

Average new car prices stand at $48,841 in 2026, according to MoneyGeek, while LendingTree's analysis of Q4 2025 Experian data puts the average monthly new car payment at $767, up 2.8 percent year over year. Used car buyers are averaging $537 per month.

The $4.10 national average compounds those figures in ways that don't always appear in a sticker price. Diesel at $5.45 per gallon raises the cost of moving vehicles from factory to dealership, a freight expense that carriers typically pass along through destination charges. Dealers facing higher utility and fleet costs across their lots absorb additional overhead that, historically, surfaces in negotiated prices and reduced incentive budgets. Auto insurance carriers, who price policies partly on repair and replacement costs that track with broader inflation, have been raising premiums steadily, adding another layer to the monthly ownership calculation.

Robert Yawger, a commodity specialist at Mizuho Securities, has noted that a $10 increment in per-barrel crude prices typically lifts gas prices by 10 to 15 cents per gallon. With the Strait of Hormuz still partially restricted and no firm timeline for resolution, analysts are watching crude markets closely for the next move.

For buyers walking the floor at the Javits Center this week, the calculation has shifted. The question is no longer simply what a vehicle costs to buy. It is what it costs to run, ship, insure, and finance in a market where the variable that matters most is being set thousands of miles away, in a waterway that handles roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil.