Global coal demand hits record 8.85 billion tons, decline looms

Global coal consumption climbed to a historic high in 2025, the International Energy Agency says, as countries grapple with competing priorities of energy security, industrial growth and climate commitments. The IEA’s Coal 2025 report places demand at 8,845 million metric tons, an increase of roughly 40 million tons or 0.5 percent from the previous year, and outlines a medium term outlook in which demand plateaus and then begins a very slow downward trend through 2030.

The new peak is notable for its uneven regional drivers. The United States posted the largest absolute increase in coal use in 2025, adding about 37 million tons, a rise the IEA links to domestic policy choices and higher natural gas prices that made coal more competitive for power generation in parts of the country. China continues to dominate metallurgical coal markets, with the IEA estimating China’s met coal consumption at about 742 million tons in 2025, roughly 67 percent of the global total. India shows a dual pattern, the IEA says, with overall coal use declining in 2025 for the third time in five decades as intense monsoon rains bolstered hydropower output and depressed electricity demand, while metallurgical coal demand rose by about 5 million tons amid expanding steelmaking capacity.

The agency reports global metallurgical coal consumption at 1,114 million tons in 2025 and cautions that this apparent stability conceals divergent regional trends. It expects met coal demand to fall by 53 million tons between 2025 and 2030 as incremental shifts in steelmaking technology and regional economic trajectories take effect.

IEA director of Energy Markets and Security Keisuke Sadamori summarized the outlook at a press briefing, saying the market "plateaus and will start a very slow and gradual decline through the end of the decade." The framing underscores a central tension in the global energy transition. While the IEA highlights that renewables, nuclear power and abundant natural gas are eroding coal’s share in electricity generation, it also notes that coal remains the single largest fuel for power today. The result is a transition that is persistent but far from precipitous.

The European Union experienced a slowing of its coal decline in 2025, the IEA finds, attributing the pause in part to lower wind generation in a year characterized by wind droughts. These episodic weather effects, alongside policy reversals or supply shocks, illustrate how energy system resilience concerns can temporarily counteract longer term decarbonization trends.

For policymakers the report presents a mixed signal. The peak in absolute consumption reinforces the urgency of international cooperation on climate finance and technology transfer, especially for countries where coal remains central to industrial development and energy security. At the same time the projected plateau and gradual decline offer a narrow window for reinforcing policies that accelerate retirements of coal capacity, scale up cleaner firm power and manage social and industrial transitions in coal dependent regions. The IEA’s figures make clear that pathways toward lower emissions will be politically and technically contested over the rest of the decade.