Gold surges past $5,000 as dollar eases ahead of U.S. data

Gold pushed back above the $5,000 mark on Tuesday as a softer dollar and positioning ahead of key U.S. economic releases sent bullion sharply higher. By 0502 GMT spot gold traded at $5,012.76 per ounce, extending a roughly 4 percent advance from the prior session, while April futures were quoted near $5,033.80 per ounce. The move underscored persistent volatility in precious metals as traders weigh incoming jobs and inflation prints that will inform the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

Price swings have been dramatic across sessions. In contrast to the New York advance, an Asian session earlier in the week recorded spot gold around $4,865.34 per ounce, and a February futures contract closed lower at $4,623.70 at settlement in another market snapshot. Silver mirrored the turbulence: spot silver was trading near $81.54 per ounce in one session and had earlier reached an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29; silver futures also posted record settles above $92 in recent trading. Market participants have described the action as intraday bargain-hunting layered on top of broader macro moves.

Macro drivers are clear. New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, which pushed the dollar index to its strongest level since early December and reduced bullion’s appeal to overseas buyers. At the same time, investors are bracing for January nonfarm payrolls and a closely watched consumer price index, with the labor print on Feb. 11 singled out as the immediate catalyst that could determine whether recent moves represent consolidation or the start of a deeper adjustment in metals.

Market expectations for policy remain nuanced. Markets are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point rate cuts in 2026, with the first broadly expected around June, even as the Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at its late-January meeting. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said she “thinks one or two more interest rate cuts may be needed to counteract weakness in the labour market,” a line that underscores how labor data will influence the timing and scale of easing.

Analysts flagged the tight relationship between the dollar and metal prices. “This could be the very short-term intraday correlation between the dollar and silver as well as gold,” said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. Tim Waterer, KCM chief analyst, added that “bargain-hunting is (also) pushing gold back above the $5,000 level” and cautioned that “we are not expecting a rate cut from the Fed until mid-year, unless the jobs data really starts to drop off a cliff.” Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, noted the recent data “is providing a bit of a headwind for gold at this point” as the dollar holds multi-week gains.

For investors and policy watchers the implications are twofold. In the near term, currency swings and headline economic prints will drive sharp moves in bullion and related assets. Over the medium term, a clear pivot toward Fed easing would likely lift gold’s case as a real-yield hedge and inflation protection, while sustained dollar strength would cap upside and increase cross-asset stress. With jobs and CPI due, markets are now effectively pricing the odds of mid-year easing and treating this week’s data as the decisive test.