Iran Vows Retaliation, Talks Collapse as Hormuz Deadline Approaches

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supplies pass, stood at the center of a deepening standoff Monday as indirect U.S.-Iran talks collapsed in Islamabad and President Trump reiterated his threat to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges if the waterway remained blocked past 8 p.m. ET Tuesday.

Pakistan-mediated negotiations produced a 45-day ceasefire proposal, tentatively called the Islamabad Accord, that would have immediately reopened the strait while allowing 15 to 20 days to finalize a broader settlement, including Iranian nuclear commitments in exchange for sanctions relief. Iran rejected that framework and submitted a 10-point peace plan demanding a permanent end to the war, a Hormuz safe-passage protocol, the lifting of all sanctions, and reconstruction commitments.

Trump, speaking at the White House on Monday, called the 10-point plan "a significant step" but "not good enough," warning: "If they don't make a deal, they will have no bridges and no power plants." Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei responded that "negotiation is in no way compatible with ultimatum, crime, or the threat to commit war crimes." A senior Iranian Foreign Ministry official separately confirmed that "we received points from the U.S. through mediators and they are being reviewed," directly contradicting Iranian state media's claim that Trump had simply "retreated out of fear of Iran's response" when he postponed a previous Hormuz deadline in March.

Tehran's countermove sharpened the stakes considerably. Semiofficial Fars News Agency, linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the judiciary's Mizan news agency both published lists of regional infrastructure Iran could target, including the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant, which houses four reactors in the western desert near the Saudi border. The threat carries particular weight because Gulf nations routinely co-locate power stations with desalination plants that supply drinking water. Aliakbar Velayati, an adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Tehran could extend disruption to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a chokepoint between Yemen and the Horn of Africa through which about 10 percent of global trade moves. U.S. intelligence assessments placed at least a dozen Iranian mines already inside the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran's Defense Council warned that any strike on Iranian coasts or islands would trigger mine-laying across additional Gulf sea lanes.

U.S. CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said the strait was "physically open" but argued Iranian missile and drone attacks on vessels had kept commercial ships away. An operational U.S.-Israeli strike plan targeting Iranian energy infrastructure was reportedly ready to execute as the deadline approached. The Pentagon has submitted a request for an additional $200 billion for the war, which began when the United States and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28.

The six-week conflict's death toll stood at more than 3,400 across the Middle East: more than 1,900 in Iran alone, at least 1,400 in Lebanon, 23 in Israel, and 13 U.S. service members killed in combat. An additional 1.2 million Lebanese people had been displaced. European Council President António Costa urged Iran to halt attacks, and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expressed relief that Trump had delayed the power plant strikes. China and Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution on protecting commercial shipping in the strait.

The OECD held its 2026 global growth forecast at 2.9 percent, but with a dozen mines in Hormuz, an operational strike plan ready, and a second major chokepoint now on Tehran's target list, the distance between that projection and a full-scale energy shock had narrowed to hours.