Iran war keeps U.S. gas prices elevated, relief may take months

Relief at the gas pump will not come just because the fighting stops. For U.S. drivers, the harder question is what has to change in oil flows, refining conditions and Middle East shipping before prices can stay down for more than a few days.

The national average price of regular gasoline was $2.98 a gallon on Feb. 26, then held at $2.98 on Feb. 28, the day the United States first launched strikes against Iran. By April 21, AAA put the average at about $4.02 a gallon, with prices hitting a recent high of $4.17 on April 9. The jump has tracked the conflict’s disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil.

That chokepoint matters because crude is still the main force setting gasoline prices. When tanker traffic, insurance costs and market expectations all worsen at once, refiners and retailers pass through the stress quickly. The result is a sustained climb at the pump, not just a one-day spike.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said he does not expect gas prices to fall below $3 this year unless a major economic shock, such as a recession, hits the market. In his most optimistic scenario, he said prices would still finish the year closer to $3.50 a gallon. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps by late October, November or December, could give the national average a chance to slip below $3, but he warned that outcome is not guaranteed.

Washington’s own energy forecasters have turned more cautious. The U.S. Energy Information Administration on April 7 lifted its 2026 average retail gasoline forecast to $3.70 a gallon, up from $3.34 in its March outlook. It also projected that April pump prices could approach $4.30 a gallon before easing later in the year if disruptions fade.

The agency said the U.S. government moved to blunt the shock with crude releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve on March 11 and a 60-day Jones Act waiver on March 17. It also said gasoline inventories are expected to stay average or above average through the forecast period, which should help limit pressure on refinery margins and retail markups.

That does not mean drivers will quickly see cheap gasoline again. GasBuddy’s January forecast had projected a yearly U.S. average of $2.97 a gallon and a December average of $2.83, but that call came before the war changed the market. For now, the path back under $3 depends less on daily headlines than on whether crude flows normalize, shipping risk fades and the geopolitical premium unwinds across the oil market.