Kīlauea Poised for New Eruption, HVO Flags Christmas Day Risk

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory is warning that Kīlauea’s summit is on the verge of another vigorous eruptive episode as models and observations converge on a narrow window centered on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. The observatory lists the authoritative forecast interval as December 22 to 27, 2025 and notes that several model ensembles further constrain the most likely onset to December 23 to 26, with some forecasts singling out December 24 and 25.

Kīlauea, VNUM 332010, at coordinates 19°25'16" N and 155°17'13" W and a summit elevation of 4,091 feet, remains at Volcano Alert Level WATCH and Aviation Color Code ORANGE. The current summit eruption has been episodic since late 2024, producing discrete fountain episodes from two vents on the southwest floor of Halemaʻumaʻu, known as Kaluapele. Episodes typically feature lava fountaining that can last up to about 12 hours, while pauses between episodes have varied, sometimes extending beyond two weeks.

Field and webcam observations on December 22 and 23 showed the eruption in a pause but with intermittent glow at the vents. Some observers reported glow at both the north and south vents, while others saw persistent glow at the south vent and little to no glow at the north vent. Seismic records show continued low level volcanic tremor over the past 24 hours, punctuated by pronounced, regular spikes consistent with gas pistoning. HVO also recorded a rapid rebound in summit inflationary tilt, a signal that when combined with tremor and vent glow is commonly followed by renewed fountain activity.

HVO cautions that discrepancies among inflation models mean the forecast window could shift if the inflation rate changes. The observatory underscores that the broad December 22 to 27 window is the official guidance and urges journalists and the public to treat it as authoritative. HVO posts activity updates through its Volcanoes USGS feed and can be reached at askHVO@usgs.gov for technical inquiries.

The year leading up to the current sequence has been unusually active. BigIslandNow counted 38 episodes through the prior year, while HawaiiNewsNow reported that roughly 53 billion gallons of lava were produced over the past year and that some episodes produced instantaneous effusion rates on the order of 1,000 to 1,200 cubic yards per second. Fountain heights during the sequence have reached roughly 1,000 to 1,500 feet in some events, and vigorous activity has at times damaged monitoring equipment.

Public safety remains the priority. The eruptive activity is confined to a closed area inside Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park. High concentrations of volcanic gases, primarily water vapor, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, create vog downwind and can aggravate respiratory conditions. HVO is coordinating with the park and the Hawai‘i County Civil Defense Agency on access restrictions and public advisories. Current visitor information is available on the Hawai‘i Volcanoes National Park website and HVO has posted a one year commemoration item and plans for Volcano Awareness Month outreach in January 2026 on its website.

Journalists and the public should rely on USGS HVO updates for the official forecast and monitor local air quality advisories as fountain activity and gas emissions evolve.