Laura Kuenssberg Travels to Wales and Scotland Ahead of May 7 Polls

Laura Kuenssberg spent last week in Scotland and this week in Wales, talking to candidates and voters ahead of the May 7 polls, in a campaign that is becoming a test of whether Labour’s problems in Westminster are spreading into the party’s regional heartlands or being filtered through local politics. The ballots in Wales and Scotland will decide devolved power over schools, care and income tax, making them a direct measure of how far voters still trust Labour to govern beyond England.

Wales is where the warning signs look most acute. Kuenssberg’s report described a bleak mood for Labour, with one party source saying the failures of the Welsh government keep coming up on the doors, while Eluned Morgan told her she would keep fighting but accepted the party could lose her seat. That sense of collapse is reinforced by YouGov’s latest model for the 96-member Senedd, which projects Reform UK on 37 seats, Plaid Cymru on 36 and Labour down to 12, ending a century of Labour dominance in Welsh politics.

In Scotland, the picture is less a direct echo of Starmer’s setbacks than a reminder that local grievances still set the terms of debate. Kuenssberg found voters in both countries expressing disillusionment with the status quo, frustration with patchy public services and doubts about what devolution has delivered. Ipsos’ Scottish political monitor has also shown the issue set voters care most about remains health, the cost of living, public services and trust in politics, with Labour trailing the SNP in voting intention and in Holyrood projections.

That split matters. Labour’s troubles in Wales appear structural, tied to the long erosion of its governing brand after 25 years in charge. In Scotland, the party is still competing against a stronger nationalist infrastructure and a voter mood shaped more by service delivery and faith in institutions than by London drama alone. The lesson from both countries is the same: Starmer’s problems can damage Labour’s appeal, but regional voters are still making their own judgments about who should run their institutions and whether any party can still make devolution work.