Trump's sagging popularity on economy boosts Democrats' Senate hopes

Republicans still held the clearer Senate map, with 53 seats to Democrats’ 47 and 35 seats on the ballot in 2026, including 22 held by Republicans. Democrats still needed a net gain of four seats to retake control, but Trump’s slump on pocketbook issues had made the long-shot climb look far more possible than it did earlier in the cycle. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted April 15-20, Trump had 36% approval overall, 30% approval on the economy, 25% on cost of living and 24% on inflation and rising prices. The same survey found 77% of registered voters said Trump bore at least some responsibility for higher gas prices.

North Carolina stood out as the Democrats’ cleanest pickup chance. Thom Tillis’ retirement turned the race into a toss-up and set up a general election between former Gov. Roy Cooper and Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. Cooper brought statewide name recognition and a record that included winning the governorship in 2016 and 2020, while Whatley tied himself closely to Trump’s agenda. Hurricane Helene’s stalled recovery also loomed over the contest, giving the race a local economic edge that went beyond party labels.

Georgia and Michigan showed how candidate quality and incumbency could still break the usual partisan math. In Georgia, Sen. Jon Ossoff had a massive financial advantage while Republicans remained fractured, with Ossoff raising a record $14 million in the first quarter and reporting more than $31 million cash on hand. Michigan was the opposite problem for Democrats: Gary Peters retired, the filing deadline passed on April 21, and Democrats had to defend an open seat in a state Trump had carried by 1.4 points in 2024, even as Republicans had not won a Michigan Senate race since 1994.

Maine rounded out the map-versus-mood story. Susan Collins remained the only Republican senator from a state that voted against Trump in all three of his general-election campaigns, but Janet Mills’ entry pushed the race from lean Republican to toss-up and gave Democrats a proven statewide contender. Ohio’s special election also showed the same pattern, with Sherrod Brown raising three times as much as Jon Husted in the first quarter. If the anti-inflation backlash persisted into fall, those races could bend the Senate map toward Democrats even though the structural numbers still favored Republicans.