Makerfield Question Time exposes Labour’s battle with Reform in key by-election

Andy Burnham’s appearance on Makerfield’s BBC Question Time special showed why Labour has turned a small-seat by-election into a national test of whether its old working-class base can still be held off by Reform. The one-hour discussion, broadcast on Thursday 4 June with the panel also including Robert Kenyon, Sarah Wakefield, Michael Winstanley and Jake Austin, came two weeks before polling day and exposed a contest in which personal brand may matter as much as party label.

That is a striking shift in a seat Labour has held since the constituency was created in 1983. Josh Simons’s resignation triggered the by-election due on Thursday 18 June, with the count expected after 10pm that night and results on Friday 19 June. At the 2024 general election, Simons won with 18,202 votes, a majority of 5,399 and turnout of 52.5%, but Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon finished second on 12,803 votes. In other words, Makerfield was already a Labour-Reform marginal before the vacancy opened.

The early polling explains why the BBC panel mattered. Survation’s first constituency poll, based on telephone interviews with 504 adults between 18 and 22 May, put Burnham on 43% and Kenyon on 40% among likely voters after undecideds were removed. Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd took 7%, the Liberal Democrats 4%, the Greens 3% and the Conservatives 2%. Survation also found Reform ahead by 11 points on a generic Westminster ballot, suggesting Burnham’s personal appeal is narrowing the gap, not erasing the underlying pull of Reform in a seat that has long felt economically and politically neglected.

A second Survation survey, reported by PollCheck and fielded from 26 May to 1 June among 518 voters, suggested the race had tightened further in Burnham’s favour, with Burnham on 49%, Kenyon on 39% and Shepherd on 8%. For Labour, that shift underlines the strategy: use Burnham, the former Leigh MP and Greater Manchester mayor, as a familiar figure in a former Labour stronghold where the party believes it can still halt the Reform surge.

The local backdrop is less forgiving. Makerfield, which includes Ashton-in-Makerfield, Bryn, Hindley and Orrell, has been shaped by complaints about planning failures, a waste scandal, delayed roads, housing pressure and a sense that Westminster has ignored the area. Fourteen candidates from 11 parties and independent campaigns were confirmed after nominations closed on 26 May, a crowded field that reflects how fragmented the vote has become in places once thought safely Labour.

Kenyon’s own campaign has added another layer of risk for Reform. He admitted making “crass” comments online after scrutiny of old posts, including remarks touching on Brexit, abortion and Ukraine. That may not be decisive in itself, but in a seat where the 2024 margin was already narrow by recent Labour standards, every weakness matters. Makerfield now looks less like a routine by-election and more like a preview of how far Labour can hold former strongholds when Reform turns local grievance into a national message.