Montana Democrats split over independent bid as Republicans eye Senate seat

Montana Democrats are confronting a familiar weakness in a state Donald Trump carried by 16 percentage points in 2020: when the vote fractures, Republicans gain room to hold seats that might otherwise be competitive. The latest split centers on Seth Bodnar, the former University of Montana president who is expected to run as an independent, a move that has angered many Democrats and raised concerns that the party could again divide its own electorate.

That fear is rooted in recent history. Jon Tester, first elected to the United States Senate in 2006 and reelected in 2012 and 2018, lost to Republican Tim Sheehy on November 5, 2024. Tester’s defeat was one of three incumbent Senate losses nationwide that year and one of five seats that changed partisan control of the chamber. In Montana, it also left Republicans in control of the governor’s office and the state legislature while Tester remained the only Democrat holding statewide office.

The 2024 race had already been leaning toward the GOP before the ballots were counted. Major forecasters rated the contest anywhere from Lean Republican to Tilt Republican, a reflection of Montana’s deep-red terrain and the difficulty Democrats face when they have to compete statewide outside a narrow set of urban and university communities. AP VoteCast data from the 2024 election showed voters focused on the economy and jobs, health care, immigration, abortion, crime, climate change, foreign policy, gun policy and racism, a mix that underscored how national issues continue to collide with Montana’s political culture.

Bodnar’s expected independent bid adds a new layer of risk for Democrats heading into another Senate cycle. Reporting has described the move as apparently backed by former Sen. Jon Tester, a detail that has sharpened internal resentment and fed suspicion that Democrats could be asked to defend a split field against a unified Republican effort.

For Republicans, that dynamic is exactly the opening they want. In a state where small shifts can decide statewide races, even a modest bleed of Democratic votes to an independent could make an open Senate seat easier to keep than to flip. In Montana, the ballot line itself may matter as much as the message.