Myanmar holds final voting phase as junta-backed party heads for landslide victory

Voters in 60 townships, including major population centers Yangon and Mandalay, cast ballots in the third and final phase of Myanmar’s contested general election on Jan. 25, as the military-backed party was widely expected to secure a lopsided win. The vote took place under the shadow of an ongoing civil war and widespread displacement, conditions that have already reshaped participation and the prospects for a credible, competitive outcome.

The final phase completed a staggered electoral timeline that has been criticised by domestic opponents and international observers for taking place in a context of armed conflict, restrictions on political activity, and large-scale population movements. The military government has overseen the process, and electoral authorities say the rounds were carried out under heavy security measures in many townships, particularly in urban areas and contested border districts. Exact turnout figures from the Jan. 25 contests had not been released by the time polls closed, complicating independent assessments of voter engagement.

The immediate political effect is likely to be consolidation of military influence in formal institutions. A decisive victory for the junta-backed party would allow the ruling apparatus to claim a renewed mandate and further marginalize organized armed groups and opposition networks that have fought since the 2021 coup. The broader humanitarian picture is stark: fighting and displacement have reduced access to services and disrupted civil registration, undermining the administration’s capacity to maintain routine state functions from revenue collection to education.

Economic consequences are already manifesting. Investors remained cautious in Yangon’s informal markets and regional financial hubs, reflecting heightened political risk and uncertainty about future policy choices. Myanmar’s economy has faced sustained headwinds since the 2021 coup, including sanctions, disruptions to foreign direct investment, declines in exports, and banking sector stress. Continued consolidation of junta control could prolong international isolation, deterring the capital flows necessary to stabilise public finances and rebuild infrastructure damaged by conflict.

For neighboring economies, a stronger military government in Naypyidaw may mean more volatile trade patterns and increased strain on cross-border supply chains. Businesses in sectors such as garment manufacturing, natural gas exports, and agriculture have already seen production disruptions linked to insecurity and labor displacement. Without a credible political settlement, fiscal revenues are likely to remain constrained, complicating efforts to address inflationary pressures and fund humanitarian responses.

Policy options available to external actors range from targeted sanctions aimed at military interests to calibrated engagement intended to preserve humanitarian channels and basic economic functions. Each approach carries trade-offs: deeper sanctions risk exacerbating civilian suffering and nudging Myanmar further into the economic orbit of states willing to tolerate the junta, while unconditioned engagement could be seen as tacit acceptance of the electoral process.

In the long term, the election’s outcome will shape Myanmar’s economic trajectory by influencing access to international markets, the flow of investment, and the capacity of domestic institutions to manage recovery. Unless the political settlement includes meaningful steps to reduce violence and restore basic governance in contested areas, the country risks a prolonged period of stagnation and deepening humanitarian need, with spillover effects for the wider region.