NBA overhauls draft lottery, expands field to curb tanking

The NBA took its sharpest swing yet at tanking on May 28, approving a lottery overhaul that gives the league’s worst teams less upside and more downside. By a 29-1 vote, the Board of Governors adopted a 3-2-1 system that expands the drawing from 14 teams to 16, starts with the 2027 draft and runs through 2029, with later rules for 2030 and beyond left for another vote.

The message behind the math is clear: finishing at the bottom should no longer be a clean path to the top pick. Under the new format, the three worst teams will each get two ping-pong balls and a guaranteed draft floor of No. 12. Teams ranked fourth through 10th worst will get three balls apiece, while the losers of the No. 7 versus No. 8 play-in games in each conference get one ball each, and the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds get two. Every non-playoff team outside the play-in gets three balls, except the three worst-record teams, which are draft-relegated and lose one ball.

That is a real change from the modern system, which already flattened odds in 2019 but still left the league’s worst teams with the best lottery position. The 2026 lottery in Chicago showed how volatile the current setup can be: the Washington Wizards won the No. 1 pick with 14.0 percent odds. The league now appears determined to reduce the incentive for front offices to chase that kind of reward by sitting veterans, trimming rotations or drifting through late-season losses when the standings no longer matter.

Adam Silver has been blunt about that problem. In March, he told owners, “Incentives need to be fixed. We will fix them.” The new rules also add enforcement tools, including the ability to cut lottery odds, alter draft positions and levy significant fines against teams that violate the spirit of competitive play. No team can land the No. 1 pick in consecutive drafts, and no club can have a top-five pick in three straight drafts. Newly traded picks also lose some of their shielding, since protections can no longer extend into the top 12 through top 15 range.

The lone dissent came from the Memphis Grizzlies, whose objection centered on the new consecutive-pick restrictions and how they could affect the value of future draft assets. That is the real test of the reform: it may make tanking less rational at the margins, but it also reshuffles how rebuilding teams value picks, trades and the bottom of the standings. The NBA is not ending the incentive to lose; it is trying to make the payoff smaller, less certain and harder to bank on.