NOAA forecasts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season with 8-14 storms

NOAA is forecasting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, but the agency is pairing that softer outlook with a blunt reminder: a quieter year can still deliver one devastating strike. The 2026 forecast calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with a 55% chance of a below-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of an above-normal season.

The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through November 30, and NOAA said it has 70% confidence in its forecast ranges. An average season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, so the agency’s numbers point to reduced activity overall without removing the threat of landfall along the U.S. coastline, the Florida Peninsula, the Gulf Coast or in the Caribbean.

Forecasters said competing forces are shaping the outlook. El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the season, a pattern that can suppress hurricane formation. At the same time, Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average, conditions that can support more storm development. That tension is why the forecast leans below normal but still leaves room for a season with serious impacts.

NOAA unveiled the outlook at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, with National Weather Service Director Ken Graham emphasizing that El Niño can dampen hurricane development while still leaving uncertainty in the season’s outcome. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings, and NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs said the agency is integrating AI-based weather models, drones and next-generation satellite data to improve forecasting and warnings.

The agency’s record shows why the warning matters. NOAA initially projected 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 major hurricanes for 2025, later adjusting to 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes. The Atlantic basin ultimately produced 13 named storms, 5 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

Colorado State University offered a similar read on April 9, projecting 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, along with a below-average 32% chance of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline, compared with the 1880 to 2020 average of 43%. The National Hurricane Center’s routine Tropical Weather Outlook is already active, underscoring the narrow window left before the season opens and the need to prepare before the first named storm forms.