One Nation wins first House seat as anti-establishment vote surges in Farrer

One Nation has broken into the House of Representatives for the first time, with David Farley projected to win Farrer in southern New South Wales and hand the anti-immigration party a federal lower-house seat at the ballot box.

The result landed in a seat that had been safely Liberal for decades. Sussan Ley had held Farrer since 2001, but she resigned from parliament in February after losing the Liberal leadership to Angus Taylor, triggering the first federal by-election since the 2025 election. The Australian Electoral Commission set the contest for Saturday, May 9, 2026, and reminded voters that voting in federal House elections is compulsory for enrolled Australians.

Farley’s win is more than a local upset. It is a warning sign for the major parties in regional Australia, where the combination of immigration anxiety, cost-of-living pressure and anger at entrenched political leadership has created space for a harder-edged right-populist challenge. Public polling had shown the race tightening between Farley and community independent Michelle Milthorpe, and the Liberals and Nationals ultimately directed preferences to One Nation rather than Milthorpe, underscoring how aggressively the contest had moved away from the old partisan order.

The ABC projected Farley as the winner after early preference counts put him well ahead, with more than 40% of the primary vote and a clear two-candidate preferred lead. That makes him the first One Nation candidate ever elected to the House of Representatives, and it gives Pauline Hanson’s party something it has long chased: representation won through the electorate, not through defection.

For the Coalition, the result sharpens a deeper problem. Farrer has been in Liberal hands for generations, yet a party built around anti-immigration politics managed to convert dissatisfaction into a parliamentary gain in one of the country’s most solid regional seats. The result will now be read as an early test of whether the protest mood is confined to one contest or whether it marks the start of a broader realignment on the right.

Former Queensland premier Peter Beattie said the mood recalled the surge that lifted One Nation in Queensland in 1998, when the party won 22.8% of the primary vote and 11 seats. That comparison hangs over Farrer now: a one-off rebellion would be damaging enough, but a sustained shift in regional voters could reshape conservative politics well beyond this by-election.