Rising beef prices squeeze Texas barbecue, brisket sales slump

Texas barbecue joints are getting hit where it hurts most: brisket, the cut that defines many menus and drives the biggest crowds, is becoming a money loser. In pit rooms across the state, owners are raising prices, shrinking portions and pushing customers toward other meats as wholesale beef costs climb far faster than they can pass along.

Rusty Rohan, a Taylor, Texas pitmaster, said a 15-pound brisket that once cost about $30 now costs roughly $110 to $115. That jump lands especially hard in barbecue, where brisket can take about 12 hours to smoke and demands labor, fuel and constant attention before a single slice reaches the counter. When the raw meat price rises that sharply, the margin on a plate can disappear almost overnight.

The squeeze reflects a deeper cattle shortage. Texas A&M economist David Anderson said the U.S. has the smallest beef cow herd since 1961, which matters for brisket because each animal yields only two briskets. Fewer cows mean fewer briskets in the market, and that tighter supply has helped keep beef prices elevated even as restaurants try to hold down menu costs.

Federal forecasts suggest the pressure is not easing soon. On May 18, 2026, the USDA Economic Research Service lowered its 2026 beef production forecast to 25.547 billion pounds, down 243 million pounds from the previous month. It also projected 2027 production would fall another 0.9%, to 25.310 billion pounds, while cattle prices were expected to reach new highs as supplies remain limited.

Consumers are already feeling it at the counter. Recent reporting showed the average retail price for beef hit a record $9.64 a pound in April, up 13% from a year earlier. Another CBS report said the average cost of a pound of ground beef reached a record-high $5.80 in April, nearly 50% above five years ago. Drought and higher operating costs have helped shrink the herd and keep prices elevated.

For Texas barbecue operators, the result is a blunt menu math problem. Brisket is often the biggest seller, but some owners are now trimming offerings or leaning harder on other cuts because brisket margins have collapsed. One owner put the risk in stark terms: "Everybody's at risk these days: You're one bad week from closing."

The pressure is colliding with a food tradition that has long sat at the center of Texas culture. Texas A&M has hosted Camp Brisket since 2013, and barbecue town halls have been held for years because owners were worried about brisket prices and supply shortages. What was once a sign of steady demand has become a warning about how quickly drought, herd losses and wholesale inflation can strain even the state’s most iconic small food businesses.