Russia says forces will stay in Mali as insurgents gain ground

Russia is pledging to stay in Mali just as insurgents are pressing closer to the capital, a sharp test of whether Moscow’s security bet is delivering control or only deeper dependence for the junta in Bamako.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russian personnel would remain at the Malian government’s request and continue helping the rulers fight “extremism, terrorism and other harmful phenomena.” The promise landed after one of the fiercest waves of attacks in years, with coordinated assaults on April 25 hitting multiple sites and killing Mali’s former defence minister, Sadio Camara. The Malian army said it killed “several hundred” attackers, but the scale of the offensive underscored how fragile the state’s grip has become.

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, the al Qaeda-linked group driving much of the pressure, has tried to turn that instability into momentum. It posted video claiming it had captured the Hombori military base in central Mali and taken two checkpoints near Bamako. Parts of the footage were verified against satellite and archive imagery, strengthening the group’s claim that it has not only survived the army’s counterattacks but expanded its reach. The group also threatened a blockade on Bamako, a city of about 4 million people that depends heavily on generators and imported fuel. A U.N. security note described the April 25 assaults as “simultaneous complex attacks” in Kati and near Bamako’s airport.

The violence has also pushed Mali’s leadership back into public view. Assimi Goïta resurfaced on April 28, then met Russia’s ambassador, a sign that Moscow was still trying to reassure its ally after the weekend attacks. Mali later held a state funeral for Camara, whose death showed how deeply the conflict had penetrated the ruling military circle.

For Moscow, Mali has become a showcase of its expanding security footprint in Africa, but also of its limits. Russia’s Africa Corps replaced Wagner in Mali after French forces withdrew in 2022, and the country later joined Burkina Faso and Niger in the Alliance of Sahel States after leaving ECOWAS in 2023. Yet Tuareg rebels said Russian Africa Corps forces withdrew from Kidal, leaving that northern town under rebel control. Against that backdrop, the Kremlin’s continued presence raises a harder question for Bamako: whether Russian forces are securing territory, protecting the regime, or simply binding Mali more tightly to a partner that cannot stop the insurgents from gaining ground.