Steve Kornacki to break down key primary races in four states

Steve Kornacki will return to NBC News’ Big Board Tuesday night to break down primary results in Maryland, New York, South Carolina and Utah, four states whose contests will help measure party strength, coalition turnout and the shape of the 2026 midterm map. After the election-night analysis, subscribers will be able to join a live Q&A, and the conversation will remain available on demand.

The clearest stakes are in the races that can tell whether each party is consolidating power or exposing weakness. Maryland’s ballot includes contests for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general, along with House races to watch in the 5th and 6th districts. In New York, the focus falls on the governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general races, plus House contests in the 7th, 10th, 12th, 17th and 21st districts, including New York City’s political core. Those results will show how Democrats and Republicans are building their coalitions in a state where House control still hinges on a handful of districts.

South Carolina brings a different test: the governor’s race is open because Republican Gov. Henry McMaster is term-limited, giving voters their first open contest for the office since 2010. NBC News is also watching House races there after Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman entered the governor’s race, leaving their districts open and adding another layer of uncertainty to the state’s primary landscape.

Utah may be the most consequential map fight of the night. A yearslong court battle produced a new congressional map that created a Democrat-leaning district centered around northern Salt Lake County, turning the state’s primary into a test of how redistricting can reshape the battle for the House. The district’s partisan lean will be closely watched as both parties look for clues about where suburban voters are moving and how durable the new lines may prove.

NBC News’ 2026 primary calendar also places these races inside a broader June stretch that has already produced winners in Alabama, Georgia, Maine, North Dakota, Oklahoma and California. For Kornacki, NBC News’ chief data analyst, the night will be another chance to translate precinct-by-precinct returns into a national picture. NBC Sports says he also contributes analysis across football and horse racing, but on Tuesday his attention will be on the primary electorate and the early signals it sends for control of Congress and state governments.