Summer airfare surge hits travelers as fuel costs climb

Travelers eyeing a summer getaway are running out of time to lock in lower fares. “If you haven't booked for this summer, get busy,” Atmosphere Research Group airline analyst Henry Harteveldt said, warning that prices are being pushed higher by oil and jet fuel costs tied to the Iran war.

The pressure is already showing up in the data. Jet fuel accounts for roughly 25% to 30% of airlines’ costs, and fuel prices were up more than $2 a gallon earlier this month. Kayak said the average domestic round-trip ticket cost $358 as of April 13, up 18%, or about $55, from a year earlier. International round-trip economy fares from the U.S. climbed by an average of $115 over the same period to $1,064, while government data showed airfares were up nearly 15% in March from a year earlier.

Harteveldt said travelers hoping for a bargain should look later in the season, when demand tends to ease and fuel costs may be clearer. But his broader advice was blunt: “Don't wait, hoping that the fares are going to go down. They're not.” For families planning school-break trips, that means the cheapest window is closing fast, especially on routes that already run heavy summer traffic.

Airlines are responding by protecting margins wherever they can. United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby said the carrier had already raised fares by 15% to 20%, and he said fares may need to rise another 15% to 20% to offset higher jet fuel costs. United also plans to cut flight volume by 5% this summer because of higher oil prices, a move that could tighten capacity on some routes and add pressure to remaining seats. American Airlines, Delta, JetBlue and United have also increased bag fees to help cover fuel costs.

Demand, meanwhile, remains strong enough to support the higher prices. AAA’s February survey of 5,000 U.S. adults found 39% planned more vacations in 2026 than in 2025, 58% expected to take multiple trips, and 42% expected to take two to three vacations of three days or more. That kind of appetite gives airlines room to keep fares elevated, even as they trim weaker routes.

There are also signs the summer could be less smooth at the airport. More than 5,000 flight routes have been canceled between Delta, United and American from May through September, averaging about 33 flights a day, and concerns remain that TSA staffing could worsen security delays if emergency funds run out. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics says its most recent airfare data are from the third quarter of 2025 and that it shifted to a 40% ticket-sampling program beginning July 1, 2025, underscoring how quickly the market has moved beyond the latest official release.