Youth unemployment could leave 1.25 million in Britain out of work

A broken bridge between school and work could leave about 1.25 million young Britons outside education, employment or training by 2031, according to an Alan Milburn-led review that says the first rung of the career ladder is now "out of reach" for many.

The review says the share of 16- to 24-year-olds who are NEET could rise from around one in eight now to one in six within five years. That would turn a labour-market warning sign into a wider economic risk, with a growing pool of young people cut off from the habits, pay and progression that usually anchor the start of working life.

Milburn, the former Labour health secretary, is leading the government investigation launched in November 2025. The inquiry was set up with two stages: a discovery phase to map the causes of rising NEET rates and economic inactivity, followed by a solutions phase due in summer 2026. Its focus is especially sharp on disabled young people and those with health conditions, the groups most likely to be pushed to the edge of the labour market.

The review's central finding is that the problem is not a lack of willingness. It says 84% of NEET young people want a job or training, suggesting that the main failure lies in the system around them, not in motivation. That gap matters because it means many young people are trying to move forward but cannot find a path into the labour market.

Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, has called youth unemployment a "quiet crisis" and a "ticking timebomb". The review echoes that warning, saying the youth pipeline has thinned to the point that entry-level opportunities are no longer easy to reach, but structurally harder to find.

The current NEET rate among 16- to 24-year-olds is around one in eight, and the review warns that without urgent action the figure could climb sharply by the end of the decade. It also points to anxiety linked to social media as one factor that may be feeding economic inactivity among some young people.

The next test for ministers is whether the summer 2026 solutions phase can identify interventions strong enough to reconnect young people to work and training before today’s disconnect turns into permanent scarring.