Argentina lifts soybean and wheat crop estimates on stronger yields

The Rosario Board of Trade on June 14 raised Argentina’s 2025/26 soybean crop estimate to 51.5 million tons from 50 million tons in May and lifted its 2026/27 wheat outlook to 20 million tons from an 18 million to 19 million ton range. The bigger soybean crop points to more crushable supply for Argentina’s oil and meal industry, a key factor for biodiesel producers and global feedstock buyers watching the virgin-versus-waste oil spread.

BCR said the soybean revision reflected stronger-than-expected yields as the harvest progressed. By June 3, farmers had already cut 92% of the crop, compared with 88% on the same date in 2025, while the national average yield had climbed to about 3.21 tons per hectare. The chamber had already marked up the soybean outlook to 48.0 million tons in February, underscoring how successive yield upgrades have pushed the crop higher as harvest results came in from Argentina’s main growing regions.

For the oilseed complex, the larger soybean pool matters as much for crushers as for farmers. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service reporting says Argentina is the world’s largest exporter of soybean meal and soybean oil, with soymeal exports forecast at 27 million tons and soybean oil exports expected to rise to 5.3 million tons. A bigger crop can support higher crush runs, improve exportable meal and oil volumes, and reinforce Argentina’s role in supplying biofuel feedstock into international markets.

BCR also left its corn forecast unchanged at a record 68 million tons for 2025/26, even as harvest was 55% complete, showing that the broader grain outlook remains firm. The wheat revision was equally notable: the exchange lifted 2026/27 production to 20 million tons from a May view of 18 million to 19 million tons, far below the 29.5 million tons it sees for 2025/26 but still a step up on improving production conditions. For traders, crushers and biodiesel producers, the sequence of upward revisions points to a tighter focus on Argentine supply as soymeal, soy oil and corn move through the pipeline toward export and domestic industrial demand.