Brazil raises June soybean export forecast to 14.38 million tons

Anec raised its June soybean export forecast to 14.38 million tons, a 16.3% increase from the 12.36 million tons projected the prior week and 4.3% above the 13.79 million tons shipped in June 2025. The new estimate, based on the midpoint of a 13.95 million-ton to 14.80 million-ton range, pointed to another heavy month for Brazilian exporters and kept Brazil’s export pipeline firmly ahead of last year’s pace.

The revision also lifted Brazil’s expected first-half soybean exports to between 72.47 million and 73.31 million tons, up from 68.05 million tons in the same period of 2025. Reuters reported on June 9 that the new estimate was about 2 million tons above Anec’s previous week’s projection, a move that reinforced expectations that Brazil was on track to post a year-on-year gain in June shipments.

For the soybean complex, the question is not whether Brazil has demand, but where the beans go first. Anec’s higher export pace signals strong loadings at a time when crushers are also competing for supply to make soy meal and soy oil, two key inputs for biodiesel economics. If exports stay this strong, the market has to decide whether beans are being pulled away from domestic crush or whether Brazil still has enough supply to feed both export terminals and processing plants.

Brazil’s size in the world market makes the number matter well beyond its borders. As the world’s largest soybean exporter, stronger Brazilian shipments can cap upside in competing offers from the United States, especially through the Northern Hemisphere summer when exporters there are trying to win business. Market commentary said the revised June outlook could even mark a record for the month, underscoring how Brazil’s export flow continues to shape global soybean availability and the price signals that run through crush margins, soy oil and biodiesel.