Brazil soy harvest nearly complete as Conab lifts grain outlook to record 358.6 million tonnes

Conab lifted Brazil’s 2025/26 grain outlook to a record 358.6 million tonnes on June 11 as the soybean harvest reached 99.8% of planted area by June 5, a signal that the country’s oilseed pipeline is effectively locked in for the rest of the season. The agency’s latest estimate was 0.2% above its prior forecast and 1.8% larger than the previous crop.

The near-finished soybean harvest matters beyond the farm gate. Conab said soybeans remain the main driver of the crop outlook, with the season’s larger planted area and rising output supported by stronger domestic demand for biofuels and solid export performance. For crushers, that points to fuller utilization as the bean crop moves off the field and into the processing chain, but it also suggests soy oil availability will be shaped by how much demand is pulled into fuel and export channels at the same time.

Brazil’s biodiesel mandate adds to that pull. The National Energy Policy Council approved an increase in the mandatory blend from 14% to 15% on June 25, 2025, effective Aug. 1, 2025, tightening the link between soybean oil and the domestic diesel pool. That policy shift does not guarantee cheaper feedstock for biodiesel producers, but it does support ongoing oil demand at a time when the soy crop is large enough to keep crushers active.

Conab also said summer corn harvest reached 87.7% of the harvested area by June 5, with first-crop corn output expected to hit 29.3 million tonnes, up 17.7% from the same period of 2024/25. The agency put first-crop corn productivity at 7,110 kilos per hectare, a record in its historical series, underscoring that Brazil is harvesting across a broad crop base, not just soybeans.

The upward revision path has been steady all season: 353.8 million tonnes in the first outlook, 356.3 million tonnes in April, 358 million tonnes in May and 358.6 million tonnes in June. For biodiesel makers and oilseed traders, the message is clear, Brazil is heading into a record grain cycle, but soy oil relief will be tempered by exporter competition and by the market’s ability to absorb a larger crush run.