EIA: one-fifth of U.S. renewable diesel and SAF output is exported

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said nearly 50,000 barrels per day of U.S. renewable diesel and other biofuels, including sustainable aviation fuel, were exported in the second half of 2025.

That volume was about one-fifth of U.S. renewable diesel and SAF production in 2H25, a share that shows advanced biofuels were already moving as traded commodities, not just domestic compliance fuels. BC Bioenergy Network’s summary of the EIA analysis said Canada took slightly more than half of those barrels, while most of the rest went to Europe.

The geographic split points to established logistics rather than one-off arbitrage. Canadian barrels can move through existing North American fuel channels, while European demand gives U.S. suppliers another outlet when export netbacks beat domestic absorption. For renewable diesel producers, that kind of pricing signal can keep plants running when road fuel demand softens. For SAF, even modest export volumes show airlines and fuel suppliers are treating the fuel as an international procurement category, not a purely U.S. policy product.

The flow was not steady. BC Bioenergy Network said lower export volumes in early 2026 reflected reduced production after some refineries were taken offline for maintenance. That lines up with the broader pattern in U.S. biofuels, where run rates can swing quickly when units turn around or feedstock economics shift.

The export data landed after a year of changing production expectations. In January and again in May 2025, EIA kept its 2025 forecasts for renewable diesel and SAF production in place, then in June 2025 it cut those 2025 forecasts in its short-term energy outlook. Reuters also reported in July 2024 that EIA expected U.S. sustainable aviation fuel capacity to rise fourteen-fold, while Reuters reported in June 2025 that the International Air Transport Association expected SAF production to double in 2025.

That backdrop matters because the U.S. trade balance for advanced biofuels has proven sensitive to policy. EIA coverage in 2025 said U.S. biodiesel and renewable diesel imports fell sharply after a tax credit change, showing how fast incentives can redirect cargoes across borders. With Asia-Pacific SAF capacity projected by Reuters to reach 3.5 million metric tons a year by the end of 2025, U.S. exporters are operating in a market where foreign supply is scaling too.