Hormuz disruptions lift U.S. refinery margins and fuel exports

The International Energy Agency on April 14 projected second-quarter 2026 oil demand would fall by 1.5 million barrels a day, the sharpest drop since Covid-19. Its full-year outlook called for global oil demand to contract by 80 kb/d in 2026.

By May 13, the International Energy Agency had global oil supply down 1.8 million barrels a day in April to 95.1 million barrels a day, after losses since February reached 12.8 million barrels a day. The swings came as disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz kept crude and product flows unstable across the Middle East and Persian Gulf.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected on June 9 that a drop in global oil demand would help limit price increases from Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil transit chokepoint, and on June 16, 2025, the U.S. Energy Information Administration put crude oil and condensate moving through the corridor 1.6 million barrels a day lower between 2022 and 2024.

The tightening fed straight into U.S. refining. Goldman Sachs expected elevated refined-fuel margins to persist through 2026 because of the disruption, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration put refiners at unseasonably high operating levels during the period. The Iran war lifted demand for U.S. fuel and boosted Gulf Coast refining margins, as international buyers searched for replacement supplies. That left U.S. plants running harder and product markets tighter, even as crude prices whipsawed on the risk of further tanker delays through Hormuz.