Ukraine keeps grain forecasts steady, sees 60.4 million-ton 2026 harvest

Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy kept its 2026/27 grain outlook unchanged, signaling a 60.4 million-ton harvest next year and 43 million tons of exports in the marketing year. Taras Vysotskyi, Ukraine’s deputy minister of economy, environment and agriculture, said the ministry does not see critical factors that could materially alter crop planting structure in 2027.

The steady forecast matters for ethanol and wider bioenergy markets because it suggests Ukraine is not flagging a new supply shock that would force buyers to rebuild risk premiums around corn, wheat and other grain flows. Even so, the official outlook still sits alongside a war-driven logistics model in which Black Sea access remains the main variable.

Vysotskyi’s 60.4 million-ton estimate leaves Ukraine’s 2026 crop nearly flat with 2025, when the country harvested just over 60 million tons of grain. On the export side, the ministry’s 43 million-ton forecast for 2026/27 also implies a large outbound surplus, backed by wheat supply that officials say will be several times higher than domestic demand. The ministry put wheat demand at 6.4 million tons and total wheat supply, including carry-over stocks, at about 26.6 million tons.

The official line is more restrained than the private sector’s. The Ukrainian Grain Association said in early June that it expects Ukraine’s 2026 grain-and-oilseed crop to reach 83.6 million tons and sees potential 2026/27 exports at 50.8 million tons, versus an estimated 42.3 million tons in the current season. That gap leaves traders weighing whether the government’s steady forecast is a sign of resilience or simply a conservative baseline in a market still shaped by war, port access and freight risk.

Those logistics remain central. Vysotskyi has said about 90% of Ukrainian agricultural exports move by sea, underscoring the importance of Black Sea corridors and Odesa-linked loading programs for any grain buyer trying to lock in supply. As of May 14, Ukraine had exported 31.47 million tons of grains and legumes, plus flour, showing the current season still moving despite disruption.