U.S. ethanol exports hit records as industry warns on USMCA risk

U.S. ethanol exports hit a record 2.18 billion gallons in 2025, worth $7.6 billion, as the industry warned that USMCA uncertainty could hit Canada and Mexico access. The Renewable Fuels Association on Feb. 20 said the shipments went to more than 80 countries, kept the United States a net ethanol exporter for a 16th straight year and matched about 13% of U.S. ethanol production.

Geoff Cooper of the Renewable Fuels Association said, “We definitely need Canada, and we definitely need Mexico when it comes to our export markets.” He also said the export market delivered a “tremendous lift” to the industry, even as Brazil and China kept punitive barriers in place against U.S. ethanol.

Canada set a single-destination record in 2025 at more than 792 million gallons, while Mexico remained the top market for U.S. distillers grains. The association said distillers grains exports totaled 11.6 million metric tons in 2025, valued at $2.8 billion. Through November 2025, U.S. ethanol exports had already reached 1.96 billion gallons and were on pace to top 2 billion gallons for the first time.

The export surge had been building before the full-year record. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. fuel ethanol exports in the first eight months of 2024 averaged 121,000 barrels per day, the highest for that period on record. EIA said the increase was driven by demand in countries with blending mandates and lower-than-usual U.S. ethanol prices, with Canada, Colombia, India and the United Kingdom among the main destinations. India’s Ethanol Blended Petrol program was a major driver of those flows.

That North American dependence now sits under a trade-policy cloud. President Donald Trump said on June 17 that the United States would do better without the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, ahead of the mandatory USMCA joint review due in July 2026. U.S. and Mexican officials were meeting in Washington in June to discuss agriculture and energy, with ethanol among the sectors in play. Any weakening of the pact could put duty-free access at risk just as Canada and Mexico account for a large share of U.S. ethanol and distillers grains sales.