CBP on track for $85 billion in tariff refunds, Big Lots prices may stay volatile

The biggest effect of the tariff refund effort may not show up at the register right away. For Big Lots, the cash CBP is unlocking for importers could reshape vendor negotiations, inventory planning and how much pricing flexibility wholesalers have as the retailer rebuilds its assortment under new ownership.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it is on track to process about $85 billion in potential and certified refunds tied to tariffs later invalidated by the U.S. Supreme Court. By May 22, CBP said roughly $20.6 billion in certified refunds with interest had already been completed through its CAPE portal, with more than 15.85 million entries accepted for duty removal and more than 8.51 million already liquidated or reliquidated without the invalidated tariffs.

The cleanup is large and still uneven. Millions of entries have failed validation because of problems such as incorrect entry numbers or missing tariff codes, and CBP has said the new process could take up to 45 days per claim. That means the cash relief importers are counting on may arrive in waves, not all at once, even after the legal question was settled.

The refund system stems from the Supreme Court’s February 20, 2026, 6-3 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not authorize the president to impose tariffs. CBP launched CAPE on April 20 to handle the claims. More than 330,000 importers had paid the invalidated duties on more than 53 million shipments, showing how widely the tariffs reached through the supply chain.

For Big Lots, the issue lands at a sensitive moment. Variety Wholesalers bought 219 Big Lots stores out of bankruptcy and reopened additional locations in waves in 2025. Lisa Seigies said on CBS Mornings that tariffs were raising the cost of imported goods and affecting inventory and pricing strategy, which helps explain why any refund windfall could first show up in procurement and margins before it changes shelf prices.

That matters in a value retail model built on tight turns and frequent promotion resets. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said U.S. import prices rose 4.2% from April 2025 to April 2026, keeping pressure on merchants that rely on imported seasonal goods, home items and other budget-sensitive categories. Even with tariff refunds moving through CBP, Big Lots prices may stay volatile while suppliers decide how much cash to keep, how much to pass through and which assortments can be sharpened fastest.