McDonald’s warning signals deeper consumer caution for Big Lots shoppers

McDonald’s posted a strong first quarter on paper, then told investors the customer backdrop is still deteriorating. The chain reported net income of $1.98 billion, or $2.78 a share, up from $1.87 billion, or $2.60 a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 9% to $6.52 billion, same-store sales increased 3.8%, and adjusted earnings of $2.83 a share topped estimates.

The bigger message came from CEO Chris Kempczinski, who said the consumer environment was “certainly not improving” and might be “getting a little bit worse.” He pointed to elevated gas prices and inflation, pressures that hit low-income households hardest. McDonald’s has leaned hard into value, including an under-$3 menu and a $4 breakfast meal deal, but even that playbook came with a warning: shoppers are eating out less often, and the company expects a meaningful slowdown in second-quarter comparable sales versus the first quarter because of a tough April comparison.

That matters for Big Lots because the same customers who trim restaurant visits often trim elsewhere too. When households become more cautious, discretionary home goods, seasonal merchandise and impulse purchases are usually among the first categories to lose momentum. The immediate risk is not just fewer trips. It is a different kind of trip, one built around tighter comparisons, more scrutiny of every price tag and less room for a basket to fill itself.

For Big Lots associates, that can change the cadence on the floor. Customers who are hunting for value tend to ask more questions, look for private-label or closeout alternatives and expect the savings to be obvious before they commit. If a preferred item is out of stock, speed and clear shelves matter more than ever because a shopper who is already cautious is less likely to hunt around. The trip has to feel worth it.

Big Lots has already lived through how fragile that customer base can be. Big Lots and its subsidiaries initiated voluntary Chapter 11 proceedings on September 9, 2024, and those cases were converted to Chapter 7 on November 10, 2025. Before that conversion, Gordon Brothers said on January 9, 2025, that it completed the purchase of Big Lots and facilitated a going-concern sale, while Variety Wholesalers was set to acquire at least 200 stores under the brand name. That history makes McDonald’s caution more than a restaurant story. It is a reminder that value shoppers are still shopping, but they are more selective, more skeptical and less forgiving when savings do not feel real.