NRF says retail jobs are evolving as AI reshapes operations

Retail’s biggest message this year is not that technology is coming for jobs. It is that value pressure, supply-chain strain and employee upskilling are now the same story, and Big Lots sits right in the middle of it. The National Retail Federation says the industry supports more than 55 million U.S. jobs, contributes $5.3 trillion to GDP and expects retail sales to grow 4.4% in 2026 to $5.6 trillion, but that growth will be won store by store, not on paper.

For Big Lots workers, that means the debate is not abstract. It shows up as leaner staffing, more cross-training, faster inventory turns and higher expectations to do more with less, especially as the company rebuilds after bankruptcy and a dramatic shrink in store count.

Why NRF’s outlook matters on the floor

NRF’s 2026 retail outlook says consumer expectations, technology and a resilient but uncertain economy are shaping the year at once. Matthew Shay, the group’s president and CEO, said household spending remains a pillar of economic support, but the organization also made clear that supply chains, trade and the need to deliver value are tightly linked. That matters at Big Lots because the chain sells the kind of goods that rise or fall with freight, sourcing and markdown discipline: furniture, home décor, mattresses, groceries, apparel and everyday essentials.

That product mix makes the job more operational than promotional. If inventory arrives late or the wrong assortment lands on the floor, the value promise breaks down fast. In a Big Lots store, the practical version of NRF’s outlook is simple: employees are being asked to keep shelves moving, explain deals clearly and cover more tasks as assortment turns faster and labor gets tighter.

The scale of NRF’s numbers also helps explain why retail labor is so sensitive to changes in one chain. More than 55 million U.S. jobs sit inside this ecosystem, so when a company like Big Lots restructures, the effects are not limited to one neighborhood strip center. They ripple through hiring, freight, warehouse work, merchandising and customer service.

AI and automation are changing the job, not eliminating it

The most useful part of NRF’s 2026 discussion for Big Lots workers is the way it frames technology. NRF says automation and AI are reshaping supply chains and store operations, but panelists stressed that innovation is creating new roles rather than simply replacing workers. The shift is toward skills such as analytics, robotics maintenance and related tasks, which is a reminder that retail jobs are becoming more technical even when the pay and title do not always catch up.

That should sound familiar to anyone in a discount chain. A store that uses more data or more digital tools needs people who can work those systems, fix problems on the fly and still help customers who want a human answer. In practice, that can mean a cashier learning more about inventory tools, a stock associate spending more time on system checks, or a floor worker being asked to troubleshoot what used to be someone else’s task.

NRF also notes that Gen Z shoppers want transparency and authenticity. That does not make the store less human. It makes the human side more valuable, because workers who can explain a promotion, locate a product and speak plainly about what is in stock are now part of the value proposition. On a floor where technology is supposed to make shopping easier, the employee who can make the technology feel useful becomes more important, not less.

Big Lots is still living through the consequences of its reset

Big Lots gives this whole debate a sharper edge because the company has already gone through a severe contraction. It filed for voluntary Chapter 11 protection on September 9, 2024, in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware. Before that filing, court materials and reporting described the chain as having about 1,400 stores and more than 30,000 workers, a scale that makes the collapse and rebuilding hard to ignore.

The first rescue plan did not hold. Big Lots initially agreed to sell its business to Nexus Capital Management for about $760 million, but that deal later fell through. Variety Wholesalers then stepped in, and in January 2025 it said it would acquire between 200 and 400 Big Lots stores. The company’s current store locator shows 219 locations, and Big Lots’ website says the new Big Lots! will operate 219 stores in 15 states across the Midwest, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

That reopening process matters because it was not a clean restart. Variety Wholesalers, led by president and CEO Lisa Seigies, reopened stores in phases during spring 2025. Business Wire said remaining stores would open through early June and lead to a grand opening celebration in the fall, and Fox Business reported that 78 stores reopened on June 5, 2025, across nine states, bringing the total reopened to 219. The company behind the rebuild is not a giant public retailer either. Variety Wholesalers is a family-owned discount operator with more than 600 stores across 18 states under banners including Roses Discount Stores, Roses Express and Maxway.

That background changes how Big Lots workers should read the current moment. This is not a steady-state retailer making a fashionable AI investment. It is a rebuilt chain inside a broader discount system, trying to prove that its value formula can still work while labor, logistics and customer expectations are all under pressure.

What employees are likely to feel next

The clearest day-to-day effect of NRF’s outlook is the pressure to do more across fewer handoffs. As stores lean on technology, workers are more likely to be asked to move between tasks, handle more inventory-related work and adapt to tools that track product flow more closely. In a chain that has reopened just 219 stores after bankruptcy, that kind of flexibility is not a side issue. It is part of how the business survives.

The staffing picture reinforces that point. Macrotrends shows Big Lots had 30,300 employees in 2024, down from 32,200 in 2023. That drop is a blunt reminder that restructuring did not just change ownership. It changed the size and shape of the workforce, and it made skills in inventory, digital systems and customer service more valuable than before.

Big Lots’ own careers page says it is recruiting and emphasizes equal employment opportunity, which signals that the company still needs people even after the shrink. But the jobs that return are not likely to look exactly like the ones that vanished. A smaller store base, more inventory discipline and more reliance on operational tools mean that the workers who can move between merchandising, systems and customer support will carry more of the load.

The bigger lesson for Big Lots

NRF’s forecast says retail sales are still expected to grow, but the winners will be the chains that can translate value into execution. At Big Lots, that means the store is no longer just a place to sell cheap furniture and home goods. It is where supply-chain discipline, labor management and technology now collide every day.

The result is a harder, more demanding version of retail work. It is also a clearer one. The chain that emerges from bankruptcy will depend on workers who can keep goods moving, use new tools quickly and make value visible to shoppers who still want both low prices and a store that feels reliable.