Goldman Sachs sees early signs of Australia M&A recovery

Goldman Sachs’ top M&A banker in Australia and New Zealand says the country’s subdued deal market is finally showing early signs of recovery after lagging Asia and the United States. Marissa Freund, speaking in Sydney on April 30, said activity had been held back by market volatility, inflation and interest-rate concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty, but the tone is starting to change.

That matters inside Goldman as much as it does in the broader market. A firmer Australian pipeline would feed mandates for bankers in Sydney and across the region, while also shaping revenue expectations and staffing plans in a business where deal volume still drives bonus pools, promotion momentum and the quality of exit opportunities. Goldman’s 2026 global M&A outlook points to a year shaped by strategic transformation, private markets and more flexible capital solutions, with policy uncertainty moderating and valuations normalizing.

The regional data points back up Freund’s view that the downturn never became a freeze. PwC Australia said the market remained resilient through 2025 and laid constructive foundations for 2026, even if activity was more selective than the global rebound. PwC said energy and financial services anchored headline value, a sign that the first real movement has come from sectors with clearer capital needs, balance-sheet pressure or strategic change. Deloitte Australia also said in October 2025 that M&A activity in Australia was gathering pace as economic conditions became more conducive and dealmakers focused on long-term strategy.

Herbert Smith Freehills Kramer’s tally gives the clearest measure of how steady the market has been underneath the slower tone. Its FY25 review counted 59 control transactions involving ASX-listed targets, almost exactly in line with the five-year average of 60. That suggests Australia’s market did not collapse so much as operate at a disciplined pace while buyers and sellers waited for better visibility.

For Goldman, Australia is a useful live indicator for whether 2026’s broader M&A thaw can move from talk to execution. If the rebound spreads beyond a handful of defensive or capital-intensive sectors, it would strengthen the case for more deal flow across the firm’s regional coverage, from pitching to execution to the resourcing decisions that follow. For now, the signal is early, but it is the first one that looks like a turn.