Goldman Sachs sees oil market swinging back into oversupply by 2027

Goldman Sachs is telling clients to brace for oil oversupply once traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, with Samantha Dart projecting a global surplus that averages just over 3 million barrels a day in 2027. Even after a little over 1 million barrels a day of global strategic reserve rebuilding, Goldman still sees the market left with close to a 2 million barrel-a-day surplus.

The call lands after a brutal reversal in prices. Benchmark crude fell almost 30% last quarter, erasing the gains that followed the Iran conflict and the interim peace deal that reopened shipping. The International Energy Agency moved first on March 11, coordinating the release of 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, its largest stock draw ever, and those barrels now have to be replaced. In the United States, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 331 million barrels as of June 19, the lowest level since 1983, according to official figures.

Goldman had already sketched the unwind in a June 17 assessment. Daan Struyven said Brent had dropped from above $120 a barrel to the low $80s after the US and Iran agreed to end hostilities and reopen the strait. Goldman said the conflict had removed roughly 14% of global production from the Middle East, but expected regional exports to return to normal by the end of July 2026. The firm also said flows through Hormuz would need to recover to about 70% of normal before those exports were fully normalized, because much of the cargo had been rerouted through pipelines during the disruption.

Inside Goldman, that kind of call strengthens the standing of the commodities research desk at a moment when the firm’s trading and banking teams will be watching the same price signals for different reasons. If Dart and Struyven are right, energy traders should see hedging demand change first as clients reset price decks, inventory assumptions and risk limits. Oil-focused bankers are likely to feel the shift soon after, as a softer price backdrop can quickly change the tone of financing conversations, from growth plans to balance-sheet repair.

Goldman’s view also puts it close to Morgan Stanley, which has cut price forecasts twice in a little over two weeks and said the market has come full circle back to surplus. Goldman Research still expects Brent to average $75 a barrel next year, a level that suggests the firm sees the post-conflict rebound as temporary and the harder part of the reset still ahead for energy clients and the people covering them.