Goldman sees AI driving another strong US earnings season

Goldman Sachs expects second-quarter S&P 500 earnings to rise about 22%, with AI infrastructure stocks driving nearly 60% of the index’s EPS growth. Micron Technology and Nvidia alone could account for more than 40% of that AI-linked contribution, putting the chips, memory and cloud buildout at the center of the next earnings season.

For Goldman bankers, traders and analysts, that makes this more than another upbeat market call. Ben Snider, Goldman’s chief U.S. equity strategist, has framed the reporting period as a key catalyst for U.S. stocks, and the firm said corporate profit growth has powered essentially all of the S&P 500’s gains over the past year. If that dynamic holds, the AI trade will keep generating client demand, but it will also sharpen the pressure to show that the work is translating into revenue, trading volumes and repeat mandates.

Goldman raised its year-end 2026 S&P 500 target to 8,000 from 7,600 in May, pairing that with a forecast for $340 in S&P 500 earnings per share in 2026, up 24% year over year, and $385 in 2027, up 13%. The firm now says AI-infrastructure beneficiaries should account for roughly half of S&P 500 earnings growth this year, up from its earlier estimate that AI investment would drive about 40% of that growth. It also expects the largest hyperscale tech companies to spend about $754 billion on capital spending in 2026, up 83% from 2025, and $905 billion in 2027.

That spending has already shown up in the numbers. Goldman said first-quarter 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth was nearly 30%, with 85% of companies beating EPS estimates and 81% topping revenue forecasts. Goldman Sachs Asset Management called it one of the strongest earnings seasons in recent S&P 500 history, while also pointing to a widening K-shaped consumer split, with high-income households driving about 40% of total consumption. For staff covering the group of AI beneficiaries, that means more scrutiny on whether the capex boom is reaching beyond megacap tech and into semiconductors, memory, advanced packaging, cooling, utilities and building materials.

The broader market backdrop is still helping. Morgan Stanley has said market breadth is improving as earnings recover beyond megacap tech, and RBC Capital Markets lifted its 12-month S&P 500 target to about 8,150. But Goldman’s own message is more demanding for employees: if the rally keeps resting on blockbuster profits rather than valuation expansion, the bar rises for bonus pools, performance reviews and the desks expected to turn AI enthusiasm into hard numbers.